In this case study we share how population forecasting helps our clients who work in retail property teams understand the future revenue potential of sites to make better location, timing, and investment structure decisions.
To calculate the viability of a store location, retailers need to assess the Retail Catchment Value of a current or proposed store location.
This short video explains how we help retailers with this important analysis, which underpins significant investment, location and planning decisions.
Property decisions sit at the heart of retail strategy. Whether building new stores, renovating existing ones, or negotiating leases, these choices lock organisations into long-term commitments. The stakes are particularly high in today's environment, where construction costs have risen dramatically while population growth creates uneven opportunities across different locations.
For retail property professionals, one critical calculation underlies all property decisions: what is the revenue potential of a given location? This determines the viable investment per square metre - whether that's construction costs, purchase price, or lease terms.
The key assumption in this calculation is the population multiplier - the number of people or households within a store's catchment area. While current population data is readily available, understanding future population is far more challenging. Yet this forecast is essential for calculating potential revenue and therefore the supportable cost per square metre of retail space.
Australia's population growth creates opportunities, but these vary dramatically across locations. No two places are the same - each has its own growth trajectory, demographic profile, and development patterns. Some areas are experiencing rapid transformation through new development and demographic change, others are stable mature suburbs with gradual evolution, while others are going through generational change as older residents move out and younger families move in.
Understanding these patterns requires specialist knowledge of:
The National Forecasting Program is an independent research program from .id (informed decisions) that gives our clients actionable information about how the population and housing landscape of local areas is forecast to change over the next 25 years.
This information is curated by specialist demographers and based on comprehensive research into the current and future pipeline of housing stock.
National coverage with local detail
Independent, evidence-based forecasts
Unique development intelligence
Underpinning our microgeographic forecasts is our residential development layer - Australia's most comprehensive view of potential future dwelling supply. Our researchers:
The result is organised by location, dwelling capacity and forecast timing of each development site, informed by order identifiers ranging from speculative supply through to completed housing stock. We then match this potential future housing supply with our population forecasts for each region to create a balanced view of the future.
Watch: our forecasts are based on an expert analysis of demographic patterns, and detailed housing and development research.
Retail property professionals can access this intelligence in multiple ways:
Our clients use these forecasts to support various property strategies:
Having access to independent, comprehensive forecasts helps retail property professionals in several ways:
Speaking with our retail clients who work in property teams, this is what they told us about why they value our research:
As Australia continues to grow and change, sophisticated demographic analysis becomes increasingly vital for retail property decisions. Success requires balancing cost pressures against growth opportunities, supported by detailed population and development forecasts.
The National Forecasting Program provides retail property professionals with the comprehensive, independent evidence base they need to make confident decisions about their property strategies, optimise their investments, and negotiate effectively with stakeholders.