Key findings
Australian Capital Territory
To meaningfully break down the larger SA4 of the ACT, further analysis will be broken down into SA3s.
The Belconnen SA3 is the largest SA3 both currently and throughout the forecast. Belconnen sees greenfield growth in its western SA2s with the Ginninderry master planned community. This growth front lasts throughout the forecast but tapers off post-2040 as supply is diminished. We also see, towards the centre of Belconnen, the new suburb of Lawson continues to grow, but with a much tighter supply, is expected to be completed by 2034. The Belconnen SA2 itself has had a flurry of apartment developments recently, now home to the tallest building in the ACT. This densification continues through the forecast but picks up in the latter half once the greenfield supply is diminished. The Gooromon SA2 seems to contain the only future growth opportunity outside of the already master planned growth fronts in the ACT.
The northern SA3 of Gungahlin sees growth on its fringe close to completion, there is a more limited supply in the midterm of the forecast, with most of the growth coming from apartment developments in the Gungahlin SA2. The Kenny SA2 growth area is one of the lesser-developed growth fronts for Canberra, with just an indicative master plan, so it is utilised mid-forecast period.
North Canberra SA3, which encompasses the city centre, has been seeing intensification along the new light rail corridor, which is expected to continue throughout the forecast (particularly in Braddon, Civic, Dickson, and Turner SA2s). There are also plans to redevelop Thoroughbred Park in the Lyneham SA2, which sees a large growth in population through the forecast. Just south of Lake Burley Griffin to the city centre is the South Canberra SA3, which has been mostly developed, but there will be a few redevelopment projects that happen within the forecast. The old Canberra Brickworks currently has an approved redevelopment of about 680 dwellings in the Yarralumla SA2. There will also be redevelopment around the Canberra Train Station and Causeway precinct (mostly within Kingston SA2).
Once known as nappy valley, the Tuggeranong SA3 sees ageing in place, as there are minimal opportunities other than infill for new developments. There have been apartment developments in the Greenway SA2, but due to its distance from the centre of Canberra and with many other more desirable areas to densify. Similarly, the Weston Creek SA3 has limited development opportunities.
Similarly to Belconnen in the Woden Valley SA3, there has been a lot of apartment development in the centre. This will continue within the forecast due to the relocation of CIT and the future light rail extension that will also go to the Phillip SA2.
Finally, there is the major greenfield growth SA3 of Molonglo, the area has been developing very quickly and has morphed and changed as demand for housing has increased. The local centre has now evolved into plans that will be more akin to areas like Belconnen and Philip SA2, seeing substantial apartment development. Denman Prospect SA2 quickly becomes the most populous SA2 in the territory, overtaking Kambah by 2036. The only remaining capacity post
2046 will be in the Molonglo and Molonglo – East SA2s.
.png?width=600&height=400&name=Meet%20the%20team%20%20Oliver%20Bowering%20(1).png)
