While others grow tall, Adelaide continues to sprawl

Adelaide - North has become South Australia's fastest urban sprawl front taking the baton from Adelaide - South SA4, given northern Adelaide does not share the same topographical constraints. However, as development rapidly expands north, there is a critical need for public and social infrastructure to keep up at the same rate.

Munno Para West - Angle Vale SA2 is forecast to carry Northern Adelaide's growth front over the forecast period, contributing 45,541 persons and 18,328 dwellings in the next 25 years. Notable developments include: The Entrance, Miravale, St Andrews Estate, Brookmont Estate, Playford Alive, Almond Grove, and Riverbanks Living.

Virginia - Waterloo Corner SA2 is also forecast to experience rapid growth in both population and dwellings, spearheaded by Riverlea Estate, a master planned suburb comprising of 12,000 private dwellings in its very own suburb, 'Riverlea Park'. Riverlea began construction is early 2022, and is expected to maintain growth throughout the entire forecast period.

The suburb of Concordia is home to the third largest growth front in Adelaide - North SA4 in the form of the rezoning of 616 ha of land for future development. Residing in Gawler - South SA2, the development is forecast to commence in the late 2020's, with consistent growth in the resulting years. Concordia is expected to supply up to 10,000 private dwellings to the LGA of Barossa, prompting a discussion to alter LGA boundaries between Gawler, Light and Barossa LGAs.

The controversial development of Dry Creek - North SA2's salt pan has also been sequenced for development by our forecasters given a recent decision to begin planning works. Although forecast to supply up to 10,000 private dwellings, the development has been forecast to commence in the 2030s.

Very limited high density zoning exists in Adelaide - North SA4, hence the lack of activity centre development. The largest activity centre identified by our forecasters is in Enfield - Blair Athol SA2, contributing close to 4% to Adelaide - North's total population growth to 2046. As the most populated SA2 in 2021, the majority of forecast growth is attributed to redevelopments and infill.

8 SA2s are forecast to decline slightly in population throughout the forecast period, the largest of which being Mawson Lakes - Globe Derby Park SA2, Redwood Park SA2, and Greenwith SA2, expected to lose 569, 462, and 385 persons respectively.

Development Hotspots

Over the forecast period, Adelaide - North is expected to grow from 182,768 to 250,012 dwellings, an additional 67,244 dwellings by 2046.

Of the 446 development sites identified, over 88% are greenfield, zoned growth areas, or potential redevelopment sites, mirroring aims of growth and urban sprawl among local and state governments.

Our forecasters have identified 25 development sites with capacities upwards of 1,000 dwellings, with each site sequenced to begin within the forecast period. The largest of which being Riverlea Estate in Virginia - Waterloo Corner SA2

Munno Para - Angle Vale SA2 stands head and shoulders over any other Greater Adelaide SA2 in terms of both population and dwelling growth over the forecast period, accounting for nearly 7% of South Australia's total dwelling growth over the next 25 years.

Over 56% of identified dwelling supply was used throughout the forecast period, however, sequencing that development is the challenge for our forecasters. Munno Para West - Angle Vale Sa2, Virginia - Waterloo Corner SA2, and Gawler - South SA2 are forecast to maintain dwelling growth to 2046, while Northgate - Northfield SA2 and Davoren Park SA2  are forecast to grow strongly in the short-term, and then ease as dwelling supply dries up.

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