2023 POPULATION FORECAST REVIEW

Adelaide - West, 

SA4 Region South Australia

Adelaide - West is forecast to grow from 247,123 to 300,786 by 2046. An increase of 53,663 people throughout the forecast period. This growth is concentrated in Port Adelaide SA2, Plympton SA2 and Brompton-Hindmarsh SA2 and is dominated by apartments and urban densification.

Version 5.1.0 Published 22nd February 2023

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Key Findings

The population of Adelaide - West in 2021 was 247,123. The population is forecast to grow by 53,663 persons to reach a population of 300,786 in 2046. This accounts for 14.3% of South Australia's population growth over the next 25 years.

  • The number of dwellings in Adelaide - West is forecast to grow from 109,972 in 2021 to 132,429 in 2046. An additional 22,457 dwellings.

  • Port Adelaide, Hindmarsh - Brompton, and Plympton take the largest share of population and dwelling growth among the 20 SA2s throughout the forecast period. 
  • Hindmarsh - Brompton SA2 is forecast to grow 8,300 persons, the largest share of population growth within the region (15.5%) by 2046.
  • Port Adelaide SA2 is forecast to add 3,746 more dwellings by 2046, accounting for 16.7% of total dwelling growth and the largest share within the Adelaide - West SA4.
  • Plympton is the fastest growing SA2 in terms of dwellings built, brought on by densification and verticalisation along major roads, whereas Port Adelaide is the fastest growing SA2 in terms of population growth, dominated by the 'Our Port' redevelopment project.
  • In comparison to Greater Adelaide, Adelaide - West has a range of household types, characterised by a younger population overall. Port Adelaide SA2 demonstrates this the most, showing the most dynamic age structure over the forecast period.
  • Adelaide - West has experienced consistent development in the past 15 years, averaging close to 900 dwellings a year every year since 2006. This however is the smallest amount of growth among the Greater Adelaide SA4s

Read on below for charts, maps and tables sharing the forecast results at SA2 geography. 

 

Geography and the role and function of place

Adelaide – West SA4 is comprised of 20 SA2s, ranging from mature beach suburbs like Semaphore and Largs Bay along the Lefevre Peninsula to the inner-city, deindustrialised suburbs like Bowden and Hindmarsh. Adelaide – West is serviced extremely well by public transport, with buses, trams and trains connecting the SA4. The Outer Harbor Railway line services the North-Eastern corner of the SA4, with the Grange line servicing the West.

Adelaide – West has a younger population compared to Greater Adelaide as a whole. SA2s like Port Adelaide and Brompton - Hindmarsh are quickly becoming fluid areas with impressive housing diversity, servicing these younger age groups.

Since Adelaide – West is a mature, inner city SA4, opportunities for greenfield growth are very limited, hence, the majority of private dwellings built over the forecast period are in the form of apartments, redevelopments, and infill.  

TOP DOWN

Adelaide - West, within the South Australian context

Our forecasts reflect how the future population of a place is affected by both localised and bigger-picture factors - what we refer to as 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' influences.

When undertaking small area forecasts, we first have to understand the macro drivers of change. Below are some key insights from our 'top-down' forecasts published in January 2023 that set the context for each region, or SA4, and the role it plays within the state.  

This video provides a short summary of the process.

 

National and State population forecast

A new census cycle means new 2021 ‘Tops-Down’ national to state to SA4 forecasts based on up-to-date macro-level population and economic assumptions. For more information on our ‘Tops-Down’ forecast assumptions and results, read our National and State Population Forecast Review.

SAFi Review

 

 

 

Adelaide - West is forecast to grow by 53,663 persons by 2046 

Australia is set to grow by 6 million persons by 2046, with South Australia's population growth accounting for around 6% of the Australian total. South Australia's population is expected to grow by 374,527 persons by 2046. Of this growth, 14% is attributed to Adelaide - West, the 3rd largest share of growth among the 7 South Australian SA4s.

Over the past 5 years, more 20-24 year-olds migrated to Adelaide - West than any other age group with a total of 961 persons aged 20-24 settling in Adelaide-West from the rest of SA. However, Adelaide - West's age structure is forecast to skew towards older age brackets over the 25 year forecast period.  Adelaide - West shares a similar migration by age profile to Adelaide - Central and Hills SA4, attributed to their similarities in household type, size and structure within their dense inner city suburbs.

 

BOTTOM UP

.id Small Area forecasts for Adelaide - West

Paired with a top-down view of the region, our bottom-up approach is able to forecast population and dwelling growth down to SA2 and sub SA2 levels. These granular forecasts provide a view of growth that factors in what is happening on the ground to give you the most accurate population forecasts in Australia.

"Land supply is not directly an issue for macro forecasts (national, states and territories), whereas when you undertake forecasting at the regional and particularly at the local level, it becomes largely about land and dwelling supply”. John O’Leary .id demographer.

 

 

 

A comprehensive and balanced view of future development 

Our forecasts incorporate research into local land use and future development from a range of public and proprietary sources.

urban.com.au Nearmap Cordell PlanSA OpenLot.com.au LocationSA Map Viewer Development-ready Callpoint spatial Realestate.com.au th urban devleoper renewalsa-logo-main-2018

The power in the Port

RenewalSA's 'Our Port' project takes the lion's share of Adelaide - West's dwelling growth, with Port Adelaide SA2 contributing over 3,700 dwellings and 16.7% share of the growth over the forecast period.

The prevalence of PlanSA's higher density, 'Housing Diversity Zone' within Adelaide - West means numerous activity centres have been identified within close proximity to the city. Hence, the majority of growth remains close to the city centre, with Hindmarsh - Brompton SA2 and Plympton SA2 contributing a shared 27% of total dwelling growth over the forecast period, carried by the Brompton gas works redevelopment and urban densification and verticalisation along major roads in Plympton, Plympton North and Kurralta Park. 

Population growth among the SA2s follows those with the greatest dwelling growth, with Hindmarsh - Brompton SA2, Port Adelaide SA2 and Plympton SA2 contributing 15.5%, 14.6%, and 11% to population growth by 2046 respectively. Flinders Park SA2 is forecast to receive over 1000 more persons by 2025, contributing 12% of Adelaide - West's total population growth to 2025. This is attributed to numerous developments sequenced to finish in the area by then. Notably, the Kidman Park Estate, regarded as the largest remaining infill site in Adelaide - West. Aura Estate and Gateway at Findon are all expected to finish before 2025.

West Beach SA2, Fulham SA2, and Royal Park - Hendon - Albert Park SA2 are expected to grow by 1000 persons or less by 2046 with no notable developments and limited future potential development identified.

 

 

 

 

Development Hotspots

Over the forecast period, Adelaide - West is expected to grow from 109,972 to 132,429 dwellings, an additional 22,457 dwellings by 2046.

Of the 332 development sites identified, over 80% are apartments and potential redevelopment sites, mirroring the inner city aims of urban densification and verticalisation. 

Over 70% of identified dwelling supply was used throughout the forecast period, however, sequencing that development is the challenge for our forecasters. Hindmarsh - Brompton SA2 and Port Adelaide SA2 are forecast to maintain dwelling growth to 2046, while West Lakes SA2 and Flinders Park SA2 are forecast to dip after 2025 due to dwelling capacity drying up after the completion of their respective current major developments. 

Areas of note 

  • Brompton's flagship development 'Brompton Gas Works' is expected to commence development soon, contributing significant dwelling supply to inner-city Adelaide.
  • 'Our Port' is a significant waterside precinct currently under-construction, driven by "Fletcher's Slip' and 'Dock One', poviding over 1,250 dwellings. 
  • The Parks SA2 is experiencing greenfield and redevelopment growth attributed to the redevelopment of various social housing communities along with multiple townhouse estates.
  • The 'St Clair Estate' in Woodville - Cheltenham SA2 is close to completion, with close to 150 dwellings remaining. Parallel to the estate is Port Road, identified as a zone enabling higher density development.
  • Plympton SA2 has been identified as a zone enabling higher density development. This area is expected to experience some urban densification over the 25 year forecast period.

 

This detail can be explored further within our Residential Development Forecasts.

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Commentary and analysis from our specialist forecasters.

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Principal forecaster
Liza Ivanova

Liza Ivanova

Population forecaster
Richard Thornton

Richard Thornton

Population forecaster
Chris_Jones

Chris Jones

Population forecaster
Oliver Bowering

Oliver Bowering

Population forecaster
john-o

John O'Leary

Forecast modelling

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Public resources for local areas

Find resources for other parts of South Australia and Australia via our demographic resource centre.

Your questions answered

Do you have a question about our forecasts, our assumptions or about the Adelaide - West SA4 Region? You can submit a question to our team by emailing locationdecisions@id.com.au

Request a copy of our forecast data for Adelaide - West SA4 Region.