2022 POPULATION FORECAST REVIEW

Brisbane - East, 

SA4 Region Queensland

Brisbane – East is forecast to grow from a population of 243,500 to 280,250 by 2041. It includes Redland City and 9 SA2s of Brisbane City. With some greenfield development occurring Victoria Point and Redland Bay, some activity centre development in Cleveland, Wynnum and Manly.

Version 4.0.0 Published 14th November 2022

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Key Findings

The population of Brisbane - East in 2021 was 243,500. The population by 2041 is forecast to grow by 36,750 persons to reach a population of 280,250. This is an average annual change of 0.71%

  • The number of dwellings in Brisbane - East is forecast to grow from 96,750 in 2021 to 115,350 in 2041. An additional 18,600 dwellings.

  • Greenfield growth has been identified in Redland Bay,  Victoria Point, and Thornlands.
  • Brisbane – East, includes Redland Islands SA2 a unique part of the world. Access to these islands is by ferry only, so is somewhat cut off from mainland. Reviewing aerial imagery shares an interesting story where lots have been created, however few have been developed. Between 2017 and 2021, Redland Islands experienced growth of approximately 200 dwellings per annum due to the development of these vacant blocks.  
  • Redland Bay is forecast to grow by over 8,750 persons and have the largest share of growth within the region (23.9%) by 2041.
  • Cleveland and Redland Islands are forecast to grow over 4,500 persons, each accounting for another 12.5% share of growth.
  • In the previous 5 years Thornlands has grown considerably with greenfield development. It grew by just over 1,500 dwellings in the 5 year timeframe. This is expected to slow with another 1,500 dwellings forecast over the next 20 years. 
  • From a demographic perspective older populations are moving into Wynnum and Manly, families are moving into Thornlands.

Read on below for charts, maps and tables sharing the forecast results at SA2 geography. 

 

Geography and the role and function of place

Brisbane - East SA4 includes Redland City and 9 SA2s of Brisbane City . The area fronts Moreton Bay, extending north to the Brisbane River and south to Logan River. Murarrie and Tingalpa are the closest to the city and have a younger profile, with the remainder of the SA4 attracting mature families and retirees. 

A unique feature of the area are the many Islands within Redland Bay. Russell Island, Karragarra Island, Lamb Island, Macleay Island and North Stradbroke Island have residential lots that are connected to mainland by ferry only. 

There is a main train line that travels through Murarrie to Wynnum, and then down the coast to terminate at Cleveland. 

  

 

TOP DOWN

Brisbane - East, within the Queensland context

Our forecasts reflect how the future population of a place is affected by both localised and bigger-picture factors - what we refer to as 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' influences.

Below are some relevant points from our 'top-down' forecasts (Queensland → SA4s), which were published in May 2021, and set the context for each region, or SA4, and the role it plays within the state.  

This video provides a short summary of the process.

 

Brisbane - East is forecast to grow by 36,750 persons by 2041 

Australia’s population is set to grow by 5.7 million persons by 2041. Of this growth 23% is expected within Queensland, with the bulk of this growth occurring in South-East Queensland. 

Brisbane – East grew by 70,000 persons between 2001 and 2021 and is expected to grow by another 36,750 persons in the next 20 years. This indicates a reduced rate of development as greenfield growth slows.  

 

To hear about more of our Queensland forecast and the top-level stories watch our Queensland after Covid webinar on demand here.

 

BOTTOM UP

.id Small Area forecasts for Brisbane - East

With a top-down view of the region, we are able to forecast population and dwelling growth down to SA2 and sub SA2 levels. These granular forecasts provide a view of growth that factors in what is happening on the ground to give you the most accurate population forecasts in Australia.

 

 

 

A comprehensive and balanced view of future development 

Our forecasts incorporate research into local land use and future development from a range of public and proprietary sources.

urban.com.au Nearmap Cordell Queensland treasury OpenLot.com.au Brisbane development Development-ready Callpoint spatial Realestate.com.au

Redland Bay SA2 will account for 23.9% of  Brisbane - East's population growth by 2041.

Below we share the change in population by SA2 for Brisbane - East, as well as the share of forecast growth for the area. We also present a map of the forecast population at 10-year intervals from 2021 to 2041. 

Redland Bay will have the largest population by 2041 with 26,888 persons, an increase of 8,800 persons and a 23.9% share of growth within the region. 

14 of the 21 SA2’s grow by less than 500 persons in the forecast period. With Redland Bay, Cleveland, Redland Islands, Thornlands, Victoria Point and Wynnum West – Hemmant, all growing by over 2,000 persons in the forecast period. 

 

 

 

Development Hotspots

Over the forecast period, Brisbane - East is forecast to grow from 96,750 in 2021 to 115,350 in 2041. An additional 18,600 dwellings.  

Whilst reviewing housing supply our team identified capacity for 19,500 new dwellings. Of this supply, 70% has been used in the forecast period.

 

 

Areas of note 

  • Woodbury Estate is starting construction now in Victoria Point.
  • Seachange Estate, also within Victoria Point is under construction and is offering retirement living. 
  • Shoreline, by lendlease is going ahead and provides greenfield growth in Redland Bay. 
  • Toondah Harbour is a controversial development in Cleveland SA2 which is yet to gain approval. The proposed development requires land reclamation and will redevelop the existing ferry terminal and build a new harbour. We have included this in our forecasts however will be monitoring progress closely. 
  • Thornlands has been the major development front for the previous 5 years with greenfield growth. the Southern Thornlands potential future growth area remains which will turn land from low density to rural residential. 

This detail can be explored further within our Residential Development Forecasts.

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Commentary and analysis from our specialist forecasters.

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Principal forecaster
Liza Ivanova

Liza Ivanova

Population forecaster
Richard Thornton

Richard Thornton

Population forecaster
Chris_Jones

Chris Jones

Population forecaster
Oliver Bowering

Oliver Bowering

Population forecaster
john-o

John O'Leary

Forecast modelling

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Public resources for local areas

The Brisbane South SA4 is covered by the City of Brisbane, which doesn't currently subscribe to our public information tools.

Find resources for other parts of South East Queensland and Australia via our demographic resource centre.

Your questions answered

Do you have a question about our forecasts, our assumptions or about the Brisbane Inner City SA4 Region? You can submit a question to our team by emailing locationdecisions@id.com.au

Request a copy of our forecast data for Brisbane Inner City SA4 Region.