2023 POPULATION FORECAST REVIEW

Queensland - Cairns SA4 region

Cairns SA4 is forecast to grow from 257,149 to 322,712 by 2046, an increase of 65,563 people throughout the forecast period. As Queensland's fourth largest city, Cairns is forecast to experience significant greenfield growth contributing to its fast expanding population.

Version 5.1.0 Published 21st June 2023

Detailed forecasts are available for this region

Our premium services give you detailed forecast information for this region to help you invest in the right place, at the right time.

  • Forecasts by age and sex
  • Single-year forecast periods
  • Custom local area geography 
  • Forecasts of housing and development

 

Menu

Insights behind our population and dwellings forecasts for Cairns SA4

Key Findings

The population of Cairns SA4 in 2021 was 257,149. Forecast to grow by 65,563, the population is set to reach 322,712 persons by 2046, accounting for 3.2% of Queensland's population growth over the forecast period.

  • The number of dwellings in Cairns SA4 is forecast to grow from 115,389 in 2021 to 143,771 in 2046, an additional 28,382 dwellings.
  • Gordonvale - Trinity SA2 (13,169), Edmonton SA2 (8,568), and Trinity Beach - Smithfield SA2 (6,842) are forecast to contribute the largest share of population growth combined, accounting for 43.6% of Cairn's SA4's total population growth to 2046, or 20.1%, 13.1% and 10.4% respectively.
  • The majority of the region's dwelling growth is attributed also to Gordonvale - Trinity SA2 (5,186), Edmonton SA2 (3,014), and Trinity Beach - Smithfield SA2 (2,819), with a combined contribution of 38.8% or 18.3%, 10.6%, and 9.9% respectively.
  • No SA2s of significant population are forecast to decline in population over the forecast period, with the smallest growth forecast in Brinsmead SA2 (157 persons).

Read on below for charts, maps and tables sharing the forecast results at SA2 geography. 

 


Geography and the role and function of place

Located in Far North Queensland, the Cairns SA4 region is made up of 33 SA2s, and is situated about 1700km from Brisbane CBD and 350km from Townsville CBD. Characterised by its tropical climate, Cairns is enjoying an increasingly diversifying economy, attracting a large range of demographics.

Historically, Cairns has played an immense role in Queensland's tourism sector, attracting both Australian and international tourists, especially those from Japan, to it's balmy, tropical shores. However, as its economy continues to diversify, an increasing number of Australian and international migrants are settling in Cairns for the long-term. The most northern point of the SA4 lies Daintree SA2, home to the world's oldest rainforest. Mossman is it's closest population hub, expected to experience notable population growth of just under 1000 people over the forecast period. South, in the skinny neck of the SA4, lies Port Douglas, a famous tourist destination. The thick of the region is centred around Cairns CBD, a fast growing hub with abundant land supply which trails south towards Mount Peter. Gordonvale - Trinity SA2 is the regions fastest growing area, home to the large Mount Peter estate along with various other growth areas. Cairns SA4 is forecast to experience the most growth in its number of young families and people over the age of 70 over the forecast period.

In terms of transport, the region benefits from a passenger bus service which connects a large proportion Cairn's population, reaching from Palm Cove to as south as Gordonvale. West of Cairns and rural suburbs must rely on private transportation.

 


Cairns SA4 Forecast Results

 

 

 


National and State population forecast

A new census cycle means new 2021 ‘Tops-Down’ national to state to SA4 forecasts based on up-to-date macro-level population and economic assumptions. For more information on our ‘Tops-Down’ forecast assumptions and results, read our National and State Population Forecast Review.

SAFi Review

1 national forecasting program.

6 ways to explore.

lg-tag

forecast.id

Plan for the changing needs of your community with a trusted forecast of population and housing in your Local Government Area, published in an accessible online tool.

Learn more →

lg-tag

forecast.id catchments

Access detailed forecasts and powerful map-based reporting that helps your teams plan more effectively within and beyond your Local Government Area.

Learn more →

Services grid  Industry tile  Business (3)

forecast.id premium

Bring the full power of our National Forecasting Program into your organisation. We'll work with you to tailor a data partnership supported by briefings from our experts.

Learn more →

Services grid  Industry tile  Business (3)

forecast.id partners

Our pay-per-download program gives our consulting partners instant access to reliable and respected forecast information on a project-by-project basis.

Learn more →

Services grid  Industry tile  Business (3)

forecast.id hotspot report

Find a location near the people you serve with a tailored report that identifies up to ten locations with the highest number of people in your target demographic. 

Learn more

Services grid  Industry tile  Business (3)

forecast.id location report

Whether you're investing in a new location or checking your current strategy is on track, forecast.id location reports quantify future demand around a known location.

Learn more →

Commentary and analysis from our specialist forecasters.

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Principal forecaster
Liza Ivanova

Liza Ivanova

Population forecaster
Richard Thornton

Richard Thornton

Population forecaster
Chris_Jones

Chris Jones

Population forecaster
Oliver Bowering

Oliver Bowering

Population forecaster
john-o

John O'Leary

Forecast modelling

place government parliment_Block_ORANGE

Do you work with local government?

If you're involved in planning local government services, we have a specialist population forecasting team that helps councils advocate for the needs of their community. Learn more about forecast.id here.

information_Block_ORANGE

Public resources for local areas

Find resources for other parts of Queensland and Australia via our demographic resource centre.

Your questions answered

Do you have a question about our forecasts, our assumptions or about the Cairns SA4 Region? You can submit a question to our team by emailing locationdecisions@id.com.au

Request a copy of our forecast data for the Cairns SA4 Region.