2023 POPULATION FORECAST REVIEW

Rest of Queensland - Darling Downs - Maranoa & Queensland - Outback SA4 regions

Combined, Darling Downs - Maranoa SA4 and Queensland - Outback SA4 are forecast to contribute 11,555 persons to Queensland's population from 2021 to 2046, contributing 0.5% and 0.1% respectively. Of the two regions, Warwick SA2 in Darling Downs - Maranoa is expected to contribute the most significant growth, accounting for 2,494 persons to 2046.

Version 5.1.1 Published 11th July 2023

2023 Population forecast data for Darling Downs - Maranoa and Queensland - Outback is now available

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Insights behind our population and dwellings forecasts for Central Queensland SA4

Key Findings

Combined, the population and Darling Downs - Maranoa and Queensland - Outback SA4 in 2021 was 211,700. Forecast to grow by 11,555, the population is set to reach 223,255

  • The number of dwellings in both SA4s is forecast to grow from 101,669 in 2021 to 110,747 in 2046, an additional 9,078 dwellings.
  • Darling Downs - Maranoa SA4 is forecast to the larger proportion of population growth, accounting for 9,726 persons or 0.5% of Queensland's total population growth to 2046. This growth is concentrated in Warwick SA2 (2,494 persons) and Crows Nest - Rosalie SA2 (1,525 persons), accounting for 25.6% and 15.7% of the SA4's growth respectively.
  • Queensland - Outback SA4 is forecast grow 1,829 persons in the 25-year forecast period to 2046, concentrated in Cape York SA2 (947 persons) and Tablelands SA2 (831 persons), accounting for 9.7% and 8.5% respectively. Eight SA2s are forecast to decline in population, with Mount Isa SA2 set to experience the sharpest decline of -864 persons.
  • Of the two regions, Darling Downs - Maranoa and Queensland - Outback, dwelling growth is concentrated mostly in Warwick SA2 (1,182 dwellings) and Cape York SA2 (858), accounting for 12.2% and 8.8% of their respective region's growth.
  • Although these regions are forecast to experience less growth in comparison to other Queensland SA4s, relative to the region, significant growth becomes evident once broken down into smaller geographies, emphasising the importance of understanding the nuances of your place.

Read on below for charts, maps and tables sharing the forecast results at SA2 geography. 

 

Geography and the role and function of place

Darling Downs - Maranoa SA4 and Queensland - Outback SA4, making up the 'rest of Queensland' region, is made up of 37 SA2s, spanning across the Queensland-New South Wales border, up the Queensland-Northern Territory border, along the Cape York Penninsula, reaching the Sandy Cape, and then South East reaching Warwick, due west of Coolangatta.

The Darling Downs region has boasted a strong agricultural industry since colonial inception, serviced conveniently by Warwick, the administrative service centre of the region. Warwick SA2 is expected to grow significantly throughout the forecast period, relative to historical growth. Whereas Mount Isa SA2, the economic hub of the Queensland - Outback SA4, is forecast to decline throughout the forecast period, with the majority of growth occurring within the Cape York SA2. 

 

Rest of Queensland SA4 Forecast Results

 

 

 

National and State population forecast

A new census cycle means new 2021 ‘Tops-Down’ national to state to SA4 forecasts based on up-to-date macro-level population and economic assumptions. For more information on our ‘Tops-Down’ forecast assumptions and results, read our National and State Population Forecast Review.

SAFi Review

Commentary and analysis from our specialist team of population forecasters.

Meet the full team →

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Population forecasting lead
Darren Thomas

Darren Thomas

Land Supply Lead
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John O'Leary

Forecast modelling
Ben_Saines

Ben Saines

Land use research

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Public resources for local areas

Find resources for other parts of Queensland and Australia via our demographic resource centre.

Your questions answered

Do you have a question about our forecasts, our assumptions or about the Darling Downs - Maranoa and Queensland - Outback SA4 Region? You can submit a question to our team by emailing locationdecisions@id.com.au

Request a copy of our small area forecast data for any Queensland SA4 Region.