Key findings
Gold Coast
Having just crossed the 700,000 mark, the Gold Coast continues to grow rapidly through the forecast - but falling 100,000 short of the much anticipated 1 million mark by 2046. Adding close to an additional 240,000 people during the forecast period, growing from around 650,000 people in 2021 to just over 900,000 by 2046 (an increase of 39%). There is simply not enough identified land capacity within the Gold Coast region to reach a population of 1 million people. Greenfield supply is almost completely diminished in our forecasts by 2046, a situation that no other major city in Australia is facing.
Until recently, the Ormeau - Oxenford SA3 has held the largest share of growth, with greenfield areas like Pimpama and Coomera being built out. The size of population growth is lower than targets set by the state, as the build-out of these suburbs has been at a lower yield than what was expected. This land quickly runs out during the forecasts, and growth must shift into the Coomera Quarter (formerly Coomera Woods) release area, which is a controversial development that has been around for over two decades, but nevertheless must be used to accommodate population growth. The Ormeau - Oxenford SA3 population still sees substantial growth, increasing from around 160,000 in 2021 to just over 222,000 by 2046.
This shift of growth from greenfield to densification is initially being spurred by the Surfers Paradise SA3; there has been a flurry of developments recently, with large-scale apartment complexes going up along the coast. Some of these areas have no height restrictions on development, and we also see a rezoning of Chevron Island, which has already begun seeing high rises popping up. This sees the population double from just under 46,000 to close to 89,000 people by 2046.
An untested market in the Southport SA3 is the last port of call for growth in the Gold Coast. The Southport North SA2 itself holds almost 20% of the identified capacity within the SA4. There is a significant amount of lapsed and abandoned apartment developments in the SA3, with many former 'Australia's next tallest building' pitches still sitting on vacant land. But as the story goes, the area must see a large amount of development to cater for the future growth of the Gold Coast, which is helped along by the light rail corridor and continued investment by State and Local Government in the area. Nevertheless, the population still increases substantially from around 65,000 to just over 99,000 by 2046.
Other areas are expected to see growth within the forecast, particularly those with densification opportunities, like those around Coolangatta, Broadbeach, and Robina. The Nerang SA3 sees some growth, but mostly within the Skyridge Estate, which eats through its supply midway through the forecast. Areas in the hinterland like Canungra, Tamborine, and Tallebudgera have limited supply opportunities, and due to environmental constraints, have limited opportunity for growth.
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