2022 POPULATION FORECAST REVIEW
Logan-Beaudesert Region, Queensland
The continued southward expansion of Greater Brisbane is forecast to make Logan-Beaudesert the third-fastest growing region in Queensland in the next twenty years.
Detailed forecasts are available for this region
Our premium services give you detailed forecast information for this region to help you invest in the right place, at the right time.
- Forecasts by age and sex
- Single-year forecast periods
- Custom local area geography
- Forecasts of housing and development
Every region has unique characteristics that impact the size, age and distribution of the population.
In the Northern parts of the Logan-Beaudesert region where we've forecast most growth will occur, it's worth paying close attention to the flood overlay in the planning scheme.
In the course of our research to identify future development capacity, there were a number of sites zoned for residential development that we haven't included in our capacity counts as they are unlikely to be developed due to flooding risks.
An example of how the flood overlay in Loganlea affects a number of potential development sites.
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Johnny Barnard
Principal forecaster
Liza Ivanova
Population forecaster
Richard Thornton
Population forecaster
Chris Jones
Population forecaster
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Oliver Bowering
Population forecaster
John O'Leary
Forecast modelling
Geography &
Role and function
Public resources for local areas
Access our public resources for the City of Logan and the Scenic Rim Regional Council LGAs.
Do you work with local government?
If you're involved in planning local government services, we have a specialist population forecasting team that helps councils advocate for the needs of their community. Learn more about forecast.id here.
Defining 'Regions'
Avoiding the brunt of the pandemic's population impacts
Like the neighbouring Ipswich region, Logan-Beaudesert services the outward expansion of suburban Brisbane, which is limited in terms of its capacity for additional housing supply. The most significant driver of population growth in Logan-Beaudesert is therefore intra-state migration caused by the outward expansion from the South and South-Western suburbs of Brisbane City. While the region does get some growth from overseas migration, and our forecasts reflect this in the total forecast for the region (SA4) and the different areas within (SA2s), you can see in the chart below it doesn't rely on overseas migration anywhere near as much as the Gold Coast, which will be much more significantly impacted by the population effects of the pandemic.
Deciding where and when housing will be built (every developer can't be right)
Perhaps the most important thing about our top-down forecast model is that by firstly forecasting the total population, we quantify the demand for housing in that region, and in doing so, provide a constraint for the growth.
Our bottom-up research aims to distribute this ‘target’ population across the hundreds of small areas that make up a region. To do this, we conduct in-depth research to identify the timing, location and sequence of significant sources of new housing. Our forecasters then make decisions to match the forecast population with the forecast supply of dwellings. In most cases, not all planned development is used. This next section shares our thinking behind these decisions.
This information is available either as evidence of our forecast assumptions or as a stand-alone forecast of residential development, available as a spatial layer or spreadsheet data file. Download a sample here or contact our team for more information.
