Moreton Bay - North, 

SA4 Region Queensland

The SA4 of Moreton Bay North is within South-East Queensland, north of Brisbane. It acts as a growth area for the north of Brisbane, with greenfield development as people move further out of the city. 

Version 4.0.0
Published 2 August 2022

Detailed forecasts are available for this region

Our premium services give you detailed forecast information for this region to help you invest in the right place, at the right time.

  • Forecasts by age and sex
  • Single-year forecast periods
  • Custom local area geography 
  • Forecasts of housing and development



Insights behind our population and dwellings forecasts for the Moreton Bay North SA4 of Queensland. 



How the big picture stories will impact the future population of the region.


How available housing and planned development are forecast to distribute population across the region.

Key Findings

Generating population forecasts for Moreton Bay North revealed the below key findings of the area: 

  • Moreton Bay - North is a fringe growth area providing good access to Brisbane. Over the next 20 years the region will grow from 265,618 persons to 388,453. 
  • In 2021 the region was home to 5.1% of the State's population. By 2041 the region is expected to cater for 5.9% of the State's population. 
  • Greenfield growth has been forecast within Caboolture West growth area, located in Upper Caboolture and Wamuran SA2s. This area is forecast to have an additional 12,000 dwellings in the forecast period. 
  • There is adequate land available for population growth. Therefore if demand were to increase, supply can be brought forward. 
  • Moreton Bay - North has pockets of areas that play a unique role and function. For example, Bribie Island is one such area, which caters for retired persons. 

Read our full analysis below for a more in-depth view.


Geography and the role and function of place

Moreton Bay – North is directly south of the Sunshine Coast and acts as an area of growth for northern Brisbane.  As Brisbane grows, families are moving along the northern corridor where there is better housing affordability.

Drivers of population growth include births, deaths and migration (in and out). The impact of closed borders to Moreton Bay -North has not had a large impact on this region like it did in Melbourne or Sydney. Rather the past two years have provided an opportunity for internal migration, that is from interstate and within the state (intrastate)

Our forecasts keep the role and function of many areas within Moreton Bay - North consistent over the forecast period. There are a few pockets of change, which will be detailed in our bottoms-up analysis. 



Moreton Bay - North, within the Queensland context

Our forecasting methodology incorporates forecasts at a National, State and regional context prior to understanding what is happening on the ground. 

Below we share the high level assumptions from our Queensland SA4 forecasts (published in May 2021) that set the context for Moreton Bay - North and the role it plays within the State. We call this our 'top-down' approach. 

This video explains the process and assumptions behind each forecast we publish.







Moreton Bay - North provides a 9% share of population growth within Queensland to 2041

Australia’s population is set to grow by 5.7 million persons by 2041. Of this growth 23% is expected within Queensland, with the bulk of this growth occurring in South East Queensland.

Moreton Bay – North, within SEQ is expected to grow by 122,835 persons, which is 9% of the QLD growth. The area is the 5th fastest growing area of the State, providing a northern expansion of Brisbane along with neighbouring SA4 Moreton Bay - South. 

The age structure of Moreton Bay - North shows families aging in place, with the population shifting to older cohorts as we near 2041. For example in 2021, there are approx 33,000 persons 70 to 84 year olds (in retirement). By 2041 this cohort will be almost double with 65,000 persons (See chart below).

To hear about more of our Queensland forecast and the top-level stories watch our Queensland after Covid webinar on here


 Research into forecasts incorporates the following resources....

urban.com.au Nearmap Cordell Queensland treasury OpenLot.com.au Brisbane development Development-ready Callpoint spatial sunshine-coast Noosa Council Realestate.com.au


.id Small Area forecasts for Moreton Bay - North

With a top-down view of the region, we are able to forecast population and dwelling growth down to SA2 and sub SA2 levels. These granular forecasts provide a view of growth that factors in what is happening on the ground to give you the most accurate population forecasts in Australia.

Below is what we learnt...




Growth in areas that can provide housing for Brisbane families

Moreton Bay - North and Moreton Bay - South are two SA4s north of Brisbane which are providing housing for Brisbane's fringe. As interstate migration increases to Queensland, Moreton Bay - North will become the home to many of these new arrivals.

Two greenfield growth areas of Caboolture West and Morayfield South, will contribute the majority of population growth within this region. The related SA2's of Upper Caboolture and Morayfield are forecast to grow by 18,830 and 17,843 persons by 2041 respectively. Wamuran, Caboolture, Burpengary - East also have significant growth in the forecast period.

In developing these forecasts, ample land supply was identified for population growth. The challenge for our forecasters is deciding on the sequence of development. 

When we were forecasting on the other side of Brisbane, the Logan-Beaudesert and Ipswich regions were characterised by an abundance of identified potential sites for future residential development.





Development Hotspots

The historic population centre of Moreton Bay – North is Caboolture. Caboolture is a established area, with an increase in dwelling density expected especially around train stations. Accessibility to Brisbane's CBD via the train line provides some transport services required for young families to move further out of the city. 

Moreton Bay - North has some significant greenfield growth with the Government approved Caboolture West Master Plan providing significant investment into Moreton Bay - North. SA2s to the west of the region such as Kilcoy and Woodford - D'Aguilar, remain as low-density rural/residential land.

Areas of note:

  • Significant greenfield growth will occur over the coming years in Caboolture West, a major development front supported by the State Government. It is within Wamuran and Upper Caboolture SA2s.  Over the forecast period these SA2s area expected to grow by over 12,000 dwellings. (See above tab titled 'Change in dwellings (forecast development)')
  • Morayfield South growth area is also an emerging development area with approximately 900 hectares of land allocated for housing. 
  • The Redcliffe peninsula is an area abundant with older adults and retirees. There is much land in Redcliffe to develop, some in the form of higher density zoning near the water, and large scale developments such as Newport Development. Despite adequate land supply, we have not used all the growth potential. Of the 4,500 potential dwellings, our forecasts utilise only 1,500 in the forecast period. We are yet to see evidence of a large population growth in Redcliffe.
  • Burpengary East SA2 has an approval plan for a new canal subdivision, the North Harbour Marina development. Development of this is yet to start. There has been considerable opposition in the media with regards to the development, however we have assumed it will go ahead in our forecasts.
  • Bribie Island is a unique area in terms of the role and function of place, where the area acts as a big retirement village. By viewing the age structure, what stands out is that after 80 years of age however, there is a steep drop in that age-cohort as people move out, assumed to be due to the lack of healthcare services in the area for the elderly.

Significant developments over 1,000 lots

  • Rocksberg Master Plan, Upper Caboolture
  • Kinma Valley Estate, Morayfield
  • North Harbour Marina, Burpengary East
  • Elimbah East Master Plan, Elimbah
  • Caboolture West Master Plan
  • Riverbank, Caboolture South
  • Morayfield South Emerging Community

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Commentary and analysis from our specialist forecasters.

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Principal forecaster
Liza Ivanova

Liza Ivanova

Population forecaster
Richard Thornton

Richard Thornton

Population forecaster

Chris Jones

Population forecaster
Oliver Bowering

Oliver Bowering

Population forecaster

John O'Leary

Forecast modelling

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Public resources for local areas

Access our public resources for the Moreton Bay Regional Council

Your questions answered

Do you have a question about our forecasts, our assumptions or about the Moreton Bay North SA4 Region? You can submit a question to our team by emailing locationdecisions@id.com.au

Request a copy of our forecast data for Moreton Bay - North SA4 Region.