Moreton Bay - North provides a 9% share of population growth within Queensland to 2041

Australia’s population is set to grow by 5.7 million persons by 2041. Of this growth 23% is expected within Queensland, with the bulk of this growth occurring in South East Queensland.

Moreton Bay – North, within SEQ is expected to grow by 122,835 persons, which is 9% of the QLD growth. The area is the 5th fastest growing area of the State, providing a northern expansion of Brisbane along with neighbouring SA4 Moreton Bay - South. 

The age structure of Moreton Bay - North shows families aging in place, with the population shifting to older cohorts as we near 2041. For example in 2021, there are approx 33,000 persons 70 to 84 year olds (in retirement). By 2041 this cohort will be almost double with 65,000 persons (See chart below).

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Growth in areas that can provide housing for Brisbane families

Moreton Bay - North and Moreton Bay - South are two SA4s north of Brisbane which are providing housing for Brisbane's fringe. As interstate migration increases to Queensland, Moreton Bay - North will become the home to many of these new arrivals.

Two greenfield growth areas of Caboolture West and Morayfield South, will contribute the majority of population growth within this region. The related SA2's of Upper Caboolture and Morayfield are forecast to grow by 18,830 and 17,843 persons by 2041 respectively. Wamuran, Caboolture, Burpengary - East also have significant growth in the forecast period.

In developing these forecasts, ample land supply was identified for population growth. The challenge for our forecasters is deciding on the sequence of development. 

When we were forecasting on the other side of Brisbane, the Logan-Beaudesert and Ipswich regions were characterised by an abundance of identified potential sites for future residential development.

Development Hotspots

The historic population centre of Moreton Bay – North is Caboolture. Caboolture is a established area, with an increase in dwelling density expected especially around train stations. Accessibility to Brisbane's CBD via the train line provides some transport services required for young families to move further out of the city. 

Moreton Bay - North has some significant greenfield growth with the Government approved Caboolture West Master Plan providing significant investment into Moreton Bay - North. SA2s to the west of the region such as Kilcoy and Woodford - D'Aguilar, remain as low-density rural/residential land.

Areas of note:

• Significant greenfield growth will occur over the coming years in Caboolture West, a major development front supported by the State Government. It is within Wamuran and Upper Caboolture SA2s.  Over the forecast period these SA2s area expected to grow by over 12,000 dwellings. (See above tab titled 'Change in dwellings (forecast development)')
• Morayfield South growth area is also an emerging development area with approximately 900 hectares of land allocated for housing. 
• The Redcliffe peninsula is an area abundant with older adults and retirees. There is much land in Redcliffe to develop, some in the form of higher density zoning near the water, and large scale developments such as Newport Development. Despite adequate land supply, we have not used all the growth potential. Of the 4,500 potential dwellings, our forecasts utilise only 1,500 in the forecast period. We are yet to see evidence of a large population growth in Redcliffe.
• Burpengary East SA2 has an approval plan for a new canal subdivision, the North Harbour Marina development. Development of this is yet to start. There has been considerable opposition in the media with regards to the development, however we have assumed it will go ahead in our forecasts.
• Bribie Island is a unique area in terms of the role and function of place, where the area acts as a big retirement village. By viewing the age structure, what stands out is that after 80 years of age however, there is a steep drop in that age-cohort as people move out, assumed to be due to the lack of healthcare services in the area for the elderly.
  
  

Significant developments over 1,000 lots

• Rocksberg Master Plan, Upper Caboolture
• Kinma Valley Estate, Morayfield
• North Harbour Marina, Burpengary East
• Elimbah East Master Plan, Elimbah
• Caboolture West Master Plan
• Riverbank, Caboolture South
• Morayfield South Emerging Community

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