Key findings

Moreton Bay - North

During the forecast period, the population of Moreton Bay - North SA4 is projected to increase by over 203,000 residents,  representing more than a 75% rise from its 2021 population of just under 269,000. Growth is mainly focused around the SA4's greenfield growth fronts, with some densification seen in its centres around Morayfield, Caboolture, and Redcliffe.

The Waraba PDA (formerly Caboolture West Master Plan) is a major source of growth for the region and Greater Brisbane as a whole. The first estates have already begun construction in the newly minted suburb of Lilywood in the Upper Caboolture SA2, seeing its population grow from 3,292 in 2021 to around 31,000 by 2046. The northern half of the Waraba PDA sits in the Wamuran SA2; the first subdivisions for this SA2 have been recently approved. There is a significant amount of development seen in the Wamuran SA2 in the forecast, growing ninefold from 4,391 people in 2021 to 42,292 by 2046. The supply of this PDA starts to diminish by the end of the forecast period, and growth shifts north to the Elimbah SA2 with the Elimbah North MDA, which was identified in the Shaping SEQ 2023 plan. 

There is identified capacity in the Morayfield South Emerging Community Zone, with much of this capacity already under construction, and the supply is almost fully utilised by 2046. We also see the North Harbour PDA in the Burpengary - East SA2, which has been contentious due to environmental concerns, going forward - noting there will need to be significant earthworks before the project commences. 

There is considerable potential for increased densification along the Redcliffe Peninsula; however, this capacity is not expected to be fully realised within the forecast period, with demand largely limited to the coastal areas. The developments are also mostly pitched towards retirees - which does not lend itself to large population growth.  Nevertheless, Redcliffe SA2 sees its population grow from 10,780 in 2021 to around 16,000 by 2046. 

What share of Australia's growth will occur in Queensland?

We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state- and regional-level forecasts for Queensland.

Access the presentation slides (including our forecast data for each region), and a short recap or the full webinar presentation on-demand. Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.

The population forecast for Queensland →

Forecast results

The following forecast information presents the combined numbers for the Moreton Bay - North region. 

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.

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