Moreton Bay - South, 

SA4 Region Queensland

The SA4 of Moreton Bay - South is located in South-East Queensland, north of Brisbane. It is a well established area with limited significant growth fronts. While the population is forecast to grow by 66,650 persons in the two decades to 2041, it is characterised by dwindling greenfield land supply. This will result in the urban densification and verticalisation of the region. 

Version 4.0.0
Published 9 September 2022

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  • Forecasts by age and sex
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Insights behind our population and dwellings forecasts for the Moreton Bay - South SA4 of Queensland. 



How available housing and planned development are forecast to influence the distribution of population across the region.

Key Findings

Generating population forecasts for Moreton Bay - South revealed the following key findings: 

  • Moreton Bay - South is an established area that has seen population growth and development over the last 20 years. Over the next 20 years the region will grow from 227,118 persons to 293,762, an increase of 66,650 persons.
  • The region accounts for a 5% share of Queensland's population growth in the next 20 years. 
  • Greenfield growth areas within the region are nearing completion. As greenfield land supply dries up, Moreton Bay - South will see greater densification (verticalisation) in order to accommodate the demand.
  • The Mill is a major development site for the region situated within the Dakabin-Kallangur, Petrie, & Lawnton SA2s. These SA2s are expected to account for 37% of the region's population growth within the forecast period.

Read our full analysis below for a more in-depth view.


Geography and the role and function of place

Moreton Bay - South acts as an extension to the northern suburbs of Brisbane, previously characterised by sprawling urbanisation and greenfield estates. With the Redcliffe Peninsula train line splitting the SA4 in half, Moreton Bay - South functions as a corridor for parents and homebuilders searching for larger blocks of land.

The impact of closed borders for Moreton Bay - South has been minimal in comparison to Brisbane City. Inter and intra-state migration has played a role in the maintenance of population growth.

As greenfield land begins to dry up, Moreton Bay - South has started to shift its focus towards densification, supplying new opportunities for vertical living along the Redcliffe Peninsula train line. Our bottoms-up forecast analysis has identified this changing role, and is explained below.


 Research into forecasts incorporates the following resources....

urban.com.au Nearmap Cordell Queensland treasury OpenLot.com.au Brisbane development Development-ready Callpoint spatial Realestate.com.au yourneighborhood.com.au moretonbay.qld.gov.au


.id Small Area forecasts for Moreton Bay - South

With a bottom-up view of the region, we are able to forecast population and dwelling growth down to SA2 and sub SA2 levels. These granular forecasts provide a view of growth that factors in what is happening on the ground to give you the most accurate population forecasts in Australia.

Below is what we learnt...




The simple story is...

As major greenfield developments are nearing completion, Moreton Bay - South is running out of land.

Throughout the last census period, areas like Mango Hill, North Lakes and Murrumba Downs were experiencing rapid growth in completed dwellings, accompanied by their settlers. As these developments near completion, population growth slows. Areas like Lawnton and Cashmere have approved, advertised, and under construction greenfield estates, although not to the extent of the above mentioned. Large rural areas towards the West allow for some potential for low-density redevelopments, however, the main focus remains on vertical living along the Redcliffe Peninsula line.

The recent and ongoing construction of The Mill, the redevelopment of Petrie's iconic paper mill into a hub of urban transformation, has opened new development opportunities. This has allowed Moreton Bay - South to begin shifting its focus of role from the sprawling extended suburbs of the old Pine Rivers Shire, into a place of increased accessibility and urban diversification. 

The last remaining significant greenfield land supply has been identified in Cashmere, with areas of medium and high density supply located within North Lakes-Mango Hill, Petrie, Lawnton, and Dakabin-Kallangur SA2s. Combined, these areas are expected to grow by 23,650 persons.

It is the sequencing of these developments which act as a challenge for our forecasters




Development Hotspots

Historically, the population centre of Moreton Bay - South was Strathpine, housing military airbases during WW2. As population began to grow, Mango Hill, North Lakes, Murrumba Downs, and Griffin saw great expansion in the form of greenfield land estates such as, Capestone Estate, Aspire Estate, and River Breeze, with supply only slowing in the last decade.

More recently, as greenfield land supply contracts, Moreton Bay - South has begun a process of verticalisation, characterised by developments like 'The Mill', which have potential dwellings counts upwards of 4000.

Areas of note:

  • The Mill at Moreton Bay Priority Development Area is adjacent to the University of Sunshine Coast and has accessibility to Petrie Station and a new Kallangur station. It covers a significant area (460 hectares) and is a major area for growth within this region. The Mill has a mix of medium and high density residential precincts, with a large infrastructural potential.
  • Mango Hill-North Lakes SA2 has a significant number of dwellings forecast to be completed by the end of the 2023 financial year. Although Capestone Estate is nearing completion, over 3800 dwellings are assumed for the SA2 within our 30 year forecast period.
  • Lawnton Lakes estate, situated in Lawnton, has recently commenced and is approved to construct close to 1000 dwellings. the Redcliffe Peninsula line runs directly adjacent to the development, helping to service the assumed population growth.

Significant developments

  • The Mill - Kallangur, Petrie, & Lawnton
  • Mango Hill Urban Neighbourhood, Mango Hill
  • Aspire Estate, Griffin
  • River Breeze, Murrumba Downs
  • Lawnton Lakes Estate - Lawnton

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Commentary and analysis from our specialist forecasters.

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Principal forecaster
Liza Ivanova

Liza Ivanova

Population forecaster
Richard Thornton

Richard Thornton

Population forecaster

Chris Jones

Population forecaster
Oliver Bowering

Oliver Bowering

Population forecaster

John O'Leary

Forecast modelling

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Public resources for local areas

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Your questions answered

Do you have a question about our forecasts, our assumptions or about the Moreton Bay South SA4 Region? You can submit a question to our team by emailing locationdecisions@id.com.au

Request a copy of our forecast data for Moreton Bay - South SA4 Region.