The simple story is...

As major greenfield developments are nearing completion, Moreton Bay - South is running out of land.

Throughout the last census period, areas like Mango Hill, North Lakes and Murrumba Downs were experiencing rapid growth in completed dwellings, accompanied by their settlers. As these developments near completion, population growth slows. Areas like Lawnton and Cashmere have approved, advertised, and under construction greenfield estates, although not to the extent of the above mentioned. Large rural areas towards the West allow for some potential for low-density redevelopments, however, the main focus remains on vertical living along the Redcliffe Peninsula line.

The recent and ongoing construction of The Mill, the redevelopment of Petrie's iconic paper mill into a hub of urban transformation, has opened new development opportunities. This has allowed Moreton Bay - South to begin shifting its focus of role from the sprawling extended suburbs of the old Pine Rivers Shire, into a place of increased accessibility and urban diversification. 

The last remaining significant greenfield land supply has been identified in Cashmere, with areas of medium and high density supply located within North Lakes-Mango Hill, Petrie, Lawnton, and Dakabin-Kallangur SA2s. Combined, these areas are expected to grow by 23,650 persons.

It is the sequencing of these developments which act as a challenge for our forecasters

Development Hotspots

Historically, the population centre of Moreton Bay - South was Strathpine, housing military airbases during WW2. As population began to grow, Mango Hill, North Lakes, Murrumba Downs, and Griffin saw great expansion in the form of greenfield land estates such as, Capestone Estate, Aspire Estate, and River Breeze, with supply only slowing in the last decade.

More recently, as greenfield land supply contracts, Moreton Bay - South has begun a process of verticalisation, characterised by developments like 'The Mill', which have potential dwellings counts upwards of 4000.

Areas of note:

• The Mill at Moreton Bay Priority Development Area is adjacent to the University of Sunshine Coast and has accessibility to Petrie Station and a new Kallangur station. It covers a significant area (460 hectares) and is a major area for growth within this region. The Mill has a mix of medium and high density residential precincts, with a large infrastructural potential.
• Mango Hill-North Lakes SA2 has a significant number of dwellings forecast to be completed by the end of the 2023 financial year. Although Capestone Estate is nearing completion, over 3800 dwellings are assumed for the SA2 within our 30 year forecast period.
• Lawnton Lakes estate, situated in Lawnton, has recently commenced and is approved to construct close to 1000 dwellings. the Redcliffe Peninsula line runs directly adjacent to the development, helping to service the assumed population growth.

Significant developments

• The Mill - Kallangur, Petrie, & Lawnton
• Mango Hill Urban Neighbourhood, Mango Hill
• Aspire Estate, Griffin
• River Breeze, Murrumba Downs
• Lawnton Lakes Estate - Lawnton

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