2025 POPULATION FORECAST REVIEW

Moreton Bay - South, 

SA4 Region Queensland

Version 5.1.0
Published 16 July 2025

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Read the insights and analysis behind our population and dwellings forecasts for the Gippsland region.

About the Moreton Bay - South Region

The Moreton Bay South region borders Brisbane's northernmost suburbs towards North Lakes and stretches out westwards to include Dayboro and Samford valley with all the rural localities between them. It has the Redcliffe line running through the middle of the region which provides an opportunity for densification. 

Unlike it's northern counterpart, the Moreton Bay South region is running out of land, this results in the move towards densification of already established areas. This is supported by The Mill PDA which will provide high density dwellings in this region.

Key findings

Moreton Bay - South

Over the forecast period, the Moreton Bay – South SA4 population will grow from around 221,556 in 2021 to 289,579 in 2046. This is an increase of about 68,023 people which is about a 30.7% increase over a 25-year period.

Due to the nature of Moreton Bay – South running out of land, there are various pockets of developable land leftover. In residential areas such as Mango Hill SA2 and Murrumba Downs – Griffin SA2, there are pockets of potential greenfield development which stem from the Emerging Community zone. However, these pockets get utilised throughout the forecast period.

Furthermore, within the Dakabin SA2 and Kallangur SA2, the Moreton Bay Housing Strategy identifies these areas for potential redevelopment through densification. This is done through the Next Generation & Urban Neighbourhood zones, which will up the density of these areas. This strategy within these areas represents the momentum of swing in terms of development, which will see more densification along infrastructure rich areas (such as train lines).

This is also seen with The Mill PDA which will contribute a significant portion of high density dwellings within the Petrie, Lawnton & Kallangur SA2s through various urban/mixed use precincts. Additionally, there are opportunities for infill development along the transport corridors which can further increase the densification based on the train stations along the Redcliffe line,

What share of Australia's growth will occur in Queensland?

We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state- and regional-level forecasts for Queensland.

Access the presentation slides (including our forecast data for each region), and a short recap or the full webinar presentation on-demand. Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.

The population forecast for Queensland→

Forecast results

The following forecast information presents the combined numbers for the  Gippsland Region

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.

  2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046
Forecast Population 221,556 242,635 256,072 269,498 280,679 28,9579
Change (five year)   21,079 13,436 13,426 11,181 8,901
Average Annual Change (%)   0.018343 0.010838 0.010273 0.008163 0.006263
Forecast Dwellings 80,638.06 86,196 91,730 97,249 10,1881 10,5745
Change (five year)   5,558 5,534 5,519 4,632 3,864
Average Annual Change (%)   0.01342 0.012523 0.011754 0.00935 0.007473

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Commentary and analysis from our specialist forecasters.

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Principal forecaster
Liza Ivanova

Liza Ivanova

Population forecaster
Richard Thornton

Richard Thornton

Population forecaster
Chris_Jones

Chris Jones

Population forecaster
Oliver Bowering

Oliver Bowering

Population forecaster
john-o

John O'Leary

Forecast modelling