About the North Coast - New England region

The North Coast - New England region consists of four SA4s, namely, Richmond-Tweed, Coffs Harbour-Grafton, Mid North Coast, and New England and North West. This region is predicted to hold a 7% share of New South Wales' population growth between 2021 and 2046.

The Richmond-Tweed SA4 stretches from the Yabbra National Park in the west, through the Richmond Valley to the northernmost stretch of coastline within the state of NSW. The coastline within this SA4 goes from "The Gap" and the town of Evans Heads in the south, northwards to Ballina, then Byron Bay, Pottsville, and finally, Tweed River. It features the rapidly-growing SA2 of Tweed Heads, and three of the four basins constituting the Northern Rivers region. Notably, this region was significantly impacted in the record-breaking 2022 floods.

Key findings

Richmond-Tweed

Over the forecast period, the Richmond-Tweed SA4 is set to grow from almost 257,000 residents in 2021 to around 316,000 in 2046, adding approximately 59,000 people over the 25 years. Growth in the SA4 is dominated by the Tweed Heads SA2 (which roughly doubles its population in the forecast period), and the Lennox Head-Skennars Head SA2 (growing to 1.9 times its 2021 census population by 2046).

The Tweed Heads SA2 is expected to grow to almost 40,000 residents by 2046. This significant growth is sourced from the vast urban release areas around the Bilambil and Bilambil Heights villages, as well as the Cobaki Lakes precincts. While the Cobaki Lakes land releases remain to be tested by the market, there is evidence to indicate a good uptake by the releases around Bilambil Heights, with development already underway in parts. Further, the proximity of Tweed Heads to the Gold Coast community (including the Gold Coast airport among other amenities) supports densification of existing residences within the central parts of Tweed Heads, and contributes to the growing population in the area.

While Tweed Heads ramps up development in the medium- to long-term, the other major growth SA2 - Lennox Head-Skennars Head - realises its development largely in the early- to mid-term, with a lower but sustained tail into the long-term. This is attributable to the large developments which are already underway and/or are approved for commencement shortly in the neighbouring towns of Skennars Head and Lennox Head. While several strategic urban growth areas have been identified, their area is less than would be required to maintain the construction rates experienced currently and into the next few years. The Lennox Head-Skennars Head SA2 is predicted to reach a population of 17,000 by 2046.

A detailed analysis of development in Tweed Heads

Liza explains how our assessment of significant development sites informs our population forecast for the Tweed Heads region.

On the other hand, some SA2s are constrained and experience little to no population growth over the forecast period, such as Tweed Heads South SA2 and Banora Point SA2 in the north, and Ballina SA2 in the south. For some others, forecast population growth is limited not by land supply but rather by demand, with an unproven appetite for development in the area, such as in the Casino SA2 and the Murwillumbah Surrounds SA2. In another case still, forecast is limited by the uncertain impact of a natural disaster event, namely, the February/March 2022 floods which devastated parts of the Northern Rivers region, most notably the Lismore community. While support is being provided to the affected residents, and many have indicated their intention to remain in the general region, several residential areas need to be replanned and rezoned, and the future appetite for settling in the Lismore SA2 beyond relocations of existing residents is unclear at this stage.

How flooding impacts the population forecast for Lismore

Liza shows how government buy-back schemes impact dwelling stock, and therefore the how the future population of Lismore is distributed throughout the city.

What share of Australia's growth will occur in New South Wales?

Read our forecast results and analysis for New South Wales on the resources page. Watch the webinar recap or see a summary slide pack to learn what's driving growth in Australia, and each region of the state.

This slide is an except from our webinar presentation, The population forecast for New South Wales and the ACT. 

Forecast results

The following forecast information presents numbers for the Richmond-Tweed SA4 only.

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.

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