About the South West Sydney region

The Sydney South West region comprises two SA4s, Sydney - South West and Sydney - Outer South West. This region is forecast to provide 16% of New South Wales' population growth between 2021 and 2046.

The South West SA4 contains established suburbs, major centres such as Fairfield and Liverpool and major urban growth areas. It is a significant source of Sydney's fringe housing supply. The region also contains the site of the Western Sydney Airport, under construction at Badgerys Creek. The Aerotropolis around the airport is expected to be a major source of new housing and employment supported by major road and rail infrastructure.

The Outer South West SA4 contains the urban centre of Campbelltown and the Greater Macarthur Growth Area. Greater Macarthur is a growth area incorporating the Glenfield to Macarthur urban renewal precincts and the land release precincts to the south, including Gilead, and further south, the growth areas around Appin and Wilton. These growth precincts will be key future growth fronts in the future.

Key findings

South West

Over the forecast period, the Sydney - South West SA4 is set to grow from 476,000 people in 2021 to around 720,000 in 2046, a growth of 55% in the period. Growth in the SA4 is dominated by two SA2s - Austral - Greendale and Leppington - Catherine Field. Considerable growth is also expected in the SA2s of Cobbitty - Bringelly and Oran Park.

The Austral - Greendale SA2 contains significant greenfield growth in the Austral and Leppington North precincts, as well as the Bradfield City Centre which will be built as part of the Aerotropolis and serviced by the new metro railway line. Leppington - Catherine Field's growth will be driven by greenfield and apartment growth in the Leppington Town Centre and development in the Catherine Field precinct. Areas in Oran Park and Cobbitty - Bringelly will be driven by substantial urban expansion, including precincts such as Pondicherry and Lowes Creek Maryland. In total, these four growth area SA2s are forecast to grow by over 200,000 people to 2046.

Edmondson Park is also expected to continue its recent growth, while of the more established areas in the SA4, Liverpool is expected to grow by around 50% based on the construction of new medium and higher density development.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, some older established areas such as Green Valley, Hinchinbrook and Bossley Park - Abbotsbury are expected to slightly decline in population over the forecast period.

Outer South West

Over the forecast period, the Outer South West SA4 is forecast to grow by approximately 130,000 persons, from a population of around 300,000 in 2021 to 430,000 in 2046. Most areas are expected to add population over the next 25 years, with growth concentrated in the developing areas of Menangle Park, Gilead, North Appin and Appin. Additionally, there is significant growth in the established areas Campbelltown, Glenfield and Ingleburn, with the development of underutilised sites and densification.

The largest growth in population will occur in the Rosemeadow - Glen Alpine SA2, with the development of Menangle and Gilead. The population is expected to grow by approximately 42,000 over the forecast period.  Development capacity identified within this SA2 is expected to be significantly utilised over the period, with about 76% of the identified capacity being developed.  The SA2 of Douglas Park - Appin, containing the growth precincts of Appin and North Appin, is expected to grow by 37,000 persons over the period. These growth fronts will continue to add significant housing stock beyond the forecast period, with only 30% of capacity used.

Glenfield, in the north of Campbelltown, will experience growth with the development of part of the Hurlstone Agricultural High School and densification of surrounding areas. It is forecast to increase in population by 11,000 persons to a population of approximately 21,000 by 2046. Similarly, Campbelltown will experience a growth of 9,000 persons as it undergoes densification.

In contrast the areas of the SA4 that fall in Camden have limited capacity for growth having recently completed their development phase. As such, they will have minimal population change and, in the case of Harrington Park, will experience population loss as the population ages.

What share of Australia's growth will occur in New South Wales?

Read our forecast results and analysis for New South Wales on the resources page. Watch the webinar recap or see a summary slide pack to learn what's driving growth in Australia, and each region of the state.

Forecast results

The following forecast information presents the combined numbers for Sydney - South West and Sydney - Outer South West SA4s.

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.

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