South Australia - South East, 

SA4 Region South Australia

South Australia - South East is forecast to grow from 198,250 to 237,784 by 2046, an increase of 36,534 people throughout the forecast period. A popular retiree region, the SA4 is forecast to experience consistent growth throughout the 25-year forecast period.

Version 5.1.0 Published 26th May 2023

2023 Population forecast data for South Australia - South East SA4 Region is now available

Purchase a one-off forecast report for a custom catchment or contact our team for a quote to access the complete dataset.



Insights behind our population and dwellings forecasts for South Australia - South East SA4. 

Key Findings

The population of Barossa - Yorke - Mid North in 2021 was 198,250. The population is forecast to grow by 36,534 persons to reach 237,784 in 2046. This accounts for 9.8% of South Australia's population growth over the next 25 years.

  • The number of dwellings in South Australia - South is forecast to grow from 105,431 in 2021 to 127,387 in 2046, an additional 21,956 dwellings.
  • Victor Harbour SA2 and Goolwa - Port Elliot SA2 are forecast to contribute the largest shares of population growth for the region, accounting for 13.3% and 10.3% respectively. The Mount Gambier region is also set to experience reasonable growth, with the combined SA2s of Mount Gambier - East, and Mount Gambier - West contributing 15.2% of the region's population growth.
  • The region's dwelling growth follows a similar pattern to it's population growth, congregated around Victor Harbour (14.2%), Goolwa - Port Elliot (13.6%), and the combined Mount Gambier SA2 region (12.3%).
  • No SA2s are forecast to decline in population over the forecast period, with the smallest growth forecast in Loxton Surrounds SA2.

Read on below for charts, maps and tables sharing the forecast results at SA2 geography. 


Geography and the role and function of place

The South Australian - South East SA4 is made up of 28 SA2s, situated east of Adelaide CBD, spanning as North as Waikerie and as South as Port MacDonnell. The region's climate covers the entire spectrum from arid, to Mediterranean, to humid, and as such, it enjoys a rather diverse economy, from primary production to tourism.

The region's most significant population centre is Murray Bridge which services it's local farming and primary produce region. situated on the Princes Highway, the region is set to maintain it's steady growth throughout the forecast period. Further south on the Fleurieu Peninsula is the popular retiree destination Yankalila, which neighbour Victor Harbor and Port Elliot, the region's second and third most populous towns. Their economies are based largely on agriculture and tourism. At the most southern point of the region lies Mt Gambier. Broken into two SA2s, the summation of Mt Gambier - West SA2 and Mt Gambier - East SA2 is greater than any SA2 in the region. Relying predominately on its services industry, both SA2s are forecast to experience steady growth throughout the forecast period.

In terms of transport, the region benefits from a passenger trainline to the Murray Bridge and Strathalbyn area. Other than that, the region relies heavily on private transportation.


South Australia - South East Forecast Results




National and State population forecast

A new census cycle means new 2021 ‘Tops-Down’ national to state to SA4 forecasts based on up-to-date macro-level population and economic assumptions. For more information on our ‘Tops-Down’ forecast assumptions and results, read our National and State Population Forecast Review.

SAFi Review

Commentary and analysis from our specialist team of population forecasters.

Meet the full team →

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Population forecasting lead
Darren Thomas

Darren Thomas

Land Supply Lead

John O'Leary

Forecast modelling

Ben Saines

Land use research

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Public resources for local areas

Find resources for other parts of South Australia and Australia via our demographic resource centre.

Your questions answered

Do you have a question about our forecasts, our assumptions or about the South Australia - South East SA4 Region? You can submit a question to our team by emailing locationdecisions@id.com.au

Request a copy of our forecast data for the South Australia - South East SA4 Region.