Tasmania population  forecasts

If your organisation is planning for the future, at some point you'll need to rely on a population forecast. 

.id's population forecasts are an independent view of population that fit within the national narrative of growth, and consider the overall capacity of local areas to sustain the population.

Our team has over 25 years experience in population forecasting across the country. Through our tops-down and bottoms-up approach we go into extensive research to how a place is changing into the future. Learn about our process here.

How we compare to State Government population projections

The Department of Treasury and Finance, of the Tasmanian State Government produce population projections. In 2019, Treasury published population projections which have since had an interim update after the 2021  Census of Population and Housing. These interim forecasts jump-off at 2021 ERP and apply the 2019 forecasts growth rates to each LGA. They have advertised a full update to be released in 2023. Their population projections can be found here. 

The State government forecasts use a multi-series approach to forecasting which consider a range of potential outcomes. They produce a low, medium and high series, with medium being the most likely forecast scenario. 

By contrast we produce a single scenario, small area forecast which is the most likely population and housing outcome based on all the available information at the time of publication. This includes, assumptions around fertility rates, mortality rates, overseas migration and interstate migration, which can be viewed in our National write-up. These assumptions at the National level filter right down to our micro geographic forecasts. 

When compared to the Treasury population projections our forecasts are in-between the high and the medium scenarios. SAFi forecasts are 24,000 persons higher than the medium series and 42,000 less that the high series. 

State government forecasts for Tasmania are available at LGA. Forecasts at LGA level can omit the nuance of place.

Tasmania is home to 31 LGA's, however our forecasts break the State down into 1,815 micro geographies to understand the timing and sequencing of development at this local scale, and thus the population change within each area. 

Example of LGA boundary versus SAFi geography.