About the Eastern Melbourne region

The Eastern Melbourne region comprises of two SA4s, Melbourne - Inner East, and Melbourne - Outer East. This region is forecast to comprise 7% of the total population growth of Victoria between 2021 and 2046. 

The Inner East SA4 is composed of established inner and middle ring Melbourne suburbs, from Kew and Hawthorn in the west, to Blackburn in the east. It includes the whole of the City of Boroondara, which covers the more historic parts of the SA4, with rapid residential development occurring in the mid- to late-1800s. The SA4 also includes about half, by area, of Manningham Council (featuring a range of nature walks and the Heide Museum of Modern Art), and Whitehorse City Council (possessing several significant medical and education facilities). Opportunities for large scale housing developments are limited due to the established nature of the areas in this SA4, and where such do exist, they are opportunistic redevelopments of land switching use primarily from manufacturing.

The Outer East SA4 covers a vast area from established outer ring suburbs like Ringwood, Bayswater, and Croydon to the wine country in the Yarra Valley including Healesville, Yarra Junction, and Warburton. Unlike most outer ring SA4s the Outer East has no identified Precinct Structure Planned areas for greenfield growth, this means that most development is constrained to densification projects, or reclaimed land like decommissioned quarries or golf courses. The SA4 contains the whole of Maroondah, Knox, and Yarra Valley LGAs known for their established residential areas and access to nature, and the remaining parts of Manningham and Whitehorse LGAs. 

Key findings

Inner East

Over the forecast period, the Melbourne - Inner East SA4 is set to grow by over 100,000 people, from around 378,000 in 2021 to just over 482,000 by 2046. While all areas are expected to add at least some population, the bulk of the growth is concentrated in Box Hill and Burwood, as well as in Hawthorn South. The majority of new housing developments in the region comprise of medium and high density dwellings.

Inner East is set to benefit from two key infrastructure projects in the medium term - namely, the Suburban Rail Loop East (Burwood and Box Hill stations situated in this SA4), and the North East Link (works concerning this SA4 in Bulleen and Balwyn North). The latter influences the forecast in that land use has been affected along the lines of the tunnels, changing where residential development may occur. The former, being a public transport initiative, influences the forecast outlook more directly as precinct structure plans are under development around the train stations concerned. While the SRLA has not yet finalised the relevant plans, we used the draft precinct vision documents released late last year to inform the scale and positioning of likely development sites, which go on to underpin our forecasts in the areas concerned. We will monitor this region for updates to the structure plans to refine our view.

The northernmost station of the East portion of the Suburban Rail Loop is Box Hill. This SA2 has seen a doubling in its dwelling growth in the last intercensal period compared with the one prior, powered by a consistent interest in apartment developments. We expect the high density dwelling growth to continue at similar levels to those recorded over the past few years, to yield a population growth of around 25,000 by 2046 - an effective doubling of population in that area. The other SRL station in this SA4 is that of Burwood, where we predict the newly-acquired connectedness to support a population growth of just over 7,000 residents by 2046. While a smaller growth than that of Box Hill, it is still significant for Burwood proportionally given a smaller overall population in this SA2 (+56% population expected).

The other area likely to add a substantial population is Hawthorn South - predicted to grow by over 8,000 people by 2046, to the new total of over 20,000 residents. This growth is due to the general desirability of the area, projects proposed and underway, as well as the large redevelopment potential along this stretch of Burwood Road.

Outer East 

From 2021 through to 2046 the Melbourne - Outer East SA4 population will increase from just under 523,000 to around 609,000 people. Most SA2s in this area do see some growth, though the majority is seen in the Lilydale - Coldstream, Ringwood, and Wantirna South SA2s. 

The most notable development in the SA4 is the Kinley Estate which is located in the Lilydale - Coldstream SA2 (Yarra Ranges LGA), this comprises around 3,200 new dwellings on the former Lilydale Quarry site. This estate coupled with a growing amount of infill development within the Lilydale town centre sees this SA2s population grow by 84% through the forecast period from 19,700 in 2021 to 36,400 by 2046. Apart from outer suburban areas like Chirnside Park and Mooroolbark SA2s, the Yarra Ranges LGA has little area for densification or greenfield growth so this does see some of the more regional areas in this LGA decline in population over the forecast period.

The Ringwood SA2 has the only Metropolitan Activity Centre in the SA4 (Ringwood MAC), therefore there is an increase in densification projects around this activity centre. This SA2 is also one of the only sources of high-density housing in the SA4 - particularly in the earlier years of the forecast. This sees an additional 5,200 dwellings over the forecast period within this SA2, and a population growth of around 9,000 people. 

The other SA2 which looks to grow significantly is the Wantirna South SA2, which will see an additional 2,800 dwellings. As well as having some turnover in its green wedge areas this SA2 holds the main Activity Centre for the Knox LGA, which is around the Westfield Knox Shopping Centre. Overall this SA2 will grow by around 32% to just under 24,000 people. 

What share of Australia's growth will occur in Victoria?

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Forecast results

The following forecast information presents the numbers for Eastern Melbourne Region.

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