Key findings
Geelong
Over the forecast period, Geelong is expected to grow from an approximately 327,419 in 2021 to 513,706 in 2046 – an increase of over 180,000 residents. Based on Estimated Resident Population, the largest share of growth is predicted to occur within Corio-Lovely Banks.
Examining some key SA2s shows us a variety of areas of interest. Notably, with the Torquay SA2, given projections, the current land supply is set to dwindle which would not produce a significantly large number of dwellings. On the other hand, SA2s, such as Barwon Heads – Armstrong Creek, Charlemont, & Grovedale – Mount Duneed are expected to continue growing until flattening out in terms of population growth due to the completion of their respected Precinct Structure Plans. Further growth is then forecast in SA2s such as Corio – Lovely Banks, Lara and Geelong West – Hamlyn Heights. This stems from the Northern and Western Growth Geelong Regions, which are expecting to commence their Precinct Structure Plans in the middle period of the forecast, based on their sequencing from Greater Geelong City Council. This can be seen with the Creamery Road & Elcho Road PSPs, which are currently being prepared by Greater Geelong City Council. In total, the respective growth regions are expected to yield a total of about 40,000 dwellings.
It is also worth noting that there will be increased growth within the Bannockburn SA2, which can be attributed to its respective growth strategy and the PSPs that stem the strategy.
Additionally, it is also worth noting that there are many Urban Design Frameworks for Inner Geelong to provide redevelopment & utilise infill opportunities to yield housing, which provides consistent growth for SA2s such as Geelong and neighbouring SA2s.
Warrnambool & South West
The Warrnambool & South West SA4 sees a small amount of population growth over the forecast period, seeing an increase of around 8,750 people from 127,600 in 2021 to around 136,300 in 2046. Most of this growth is centred around the towns of Warrnambool, Colac, Port Fairy, and Portland.
Warrnambool is the largest city in the SA4 and sees an almost 18% growth in population over the 2 SA2s that cover the LGA (Warrnambool - North and Warrnambool - South). Warrnambool - North SA2 comprises most of this growth as it contains the existing growth fronts around North Dennington and North of the Merri, and the future growth front East of Aberline PSP. This sees the Warrnambool - North SA2 population increase from around 22,500 in 2021 to just under 28,000 in 2046. The South Warrnambool SA2 also sees modest growth of around 900 people or 6.57%, being the more established of the two Warrnambool SA2s there is more infill and fewer greenfield growth opportunities leading to a smaller population growth.
Growth in both the Colac and Portland SA2s is also steady throughout the period, with both being centres of employment for manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, and fishing industries. The Colac SA2 sees its population grow from just under 12,700 people to around 14,550 people over the forecast period, a 14.7% growth. There is an 8.9% population growth in the Portland SA2 seeing its population grow in the forecast period from around 11,200 people to just under 12,200 people. Both of these areas see consistent growth over the period, with their presumed development assumptions stable with the rate of growth within the SA4.
As noted, many of the more rural SA2s see declines in population over the period which lessens the overall growth in population for the SA4. These more rural areas are seeing ageing demographics, which reduce the average household sizes in these areas. There is also a preference for younger age groups and those with children to live in proximity to areas of employment and access to schools and healthcare, which typically sees them moving to larger regional centres and towns.
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