About the Northern Melbourne region

The Northern Melbourne region comprises two SA4s, Melbourne - North East, and Melbourne - North West. This region is forecast to account for 21% of the total population growth of Victoria between 2021 and 2046. 

The North East SA4 contains established suburbs, with major centres like Preston, Epping, Heidelberg, and Reservoir. It extends northwards to the major fringe growth areas of Wollert, Donnybrook, Beveridge, and Wallan. The fringe growth of this area is contained within Precinct Structure Plans which are outlined by the Victorian Planning Authority. 

Key findings

North East

Over the forecast period, the Melbourne - North East SA4 is set to grow from 546,000 people in 2021 to around 916,000 by 2046, a growth of 67% in the period. This growth is mainly concentrated within the greenfield growth SA2s of Wallan, Whittlesea, and Wollert. There is also growth in activity centres in established areas like Preston - East SA2, Epping - South SA2, and Heidelberg - West SA2 fueled by densification around public transit hubs and main roads.

The Wallan SA2 sees remarkably high population growth over the forecast period, growing from almost 23,000 people in 2021 to around 159,000 people in 2046. Most of this growth is set to happen post-2030 when more of the greenfield areas of this SA2 get underway with development. Another factor fueling this growth is higher than average household sizes, this is due to the movement of young, and immigrant families to the new regions. There are similar stories in the Whittlesea SA2 and Wollert SA2, growing from 11,700 to 64,200 and 24,700 to 70,100 respectively. The Whittlesea SA2 and Wollert SA2 do see a slow drop off in activity through the forecast period as they exhaust their available land supply. 

The Preston - East SA2 sees a continuing pattern of densification over the period, with many projects currently underway or in the pipeline, and with many areas flagged for this kind of development. This is also seen to a lesser extent in areas like Heidelberg - West and Heidelberg - Rosanna SA2s, Ivanhoe SA2, Epping - South SA2, and Reservoir - South East SA2. 

There is a much smaller level of growth seen in areas like the Nillumbik - Kinglake SA3, where there are little opportunities for densification outside of the Eltham SA2 and few greenfield opportunities outside of the Wattle Glen - Diamond Creek SA2. 

What share of Australia's growth will occur in Victoria?

We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state- and regional-level forecasts for Victoria.

Access the presentation slides (including our forecast data for each region), and a short recap or the full webinar presentation on-demand. Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.

The population forecast for Victoria →

Forecast results

The following forecast information presents the combined numbers for Melbourne - North East and Melbourne - North West SA4s.

Learn more about the different options to access these forecasts for Local Government Areas (LGAs), suburbs, custom catchments or the entire state or nation here.

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