About the Southern Melbourne & Peninsula region

The Southern Melbourne region comprises of two SA4s, Melbourne - Inner South, and Melbourne - Mornington Peninsula. This region is forecast to account for 6% of the total population growth of Victoria between 2021 and 2046. 

The Inner South SA4 is composed of established middle-ring Melbourne suburbs. Going from Malvern, Glen Iris & Caufield, ranging south all the way down to Carrum and Patterson Lakes, with most suburbs in between and along the coast. This SA4 contains the eastern portion of Stonnington Council, Glen Eira City Council, Bayside City Council and the majority of Kingston City Council. Housing opportunities within this SA4 is based upon strategic housing plans for increased densification around transit, and precinct structure plans stemming from the Suburban Rail Loop within the later half of the 2020s.

The Mornington Peninsula SA4 is the bottom of the comma curve of the land bordering the eastern portion of Port Phillip Bay, and consists of the outer edge of the urban greater Melbourne area in suburbs such as Frankston, smaller townships that have been integrated into the urban form, such as Rosebud and Dromana, and small rural settlements such as Hastings. This SA4 consists of two LGAs, Frankston City Council and the Mornington Peninsula Shire. Growth in this SA4 is focussed on the central Frankston area, and  to a lesser extent, Mornington and Rosebud.

The significant character of the area with a large number of holiday houses and an agricultural base as well as the urbanised portion is not expected to significantly change.

Key findings

Melbourne Inner-South

Over the forecast period, Melbourne Inner South is set to grow over 100,000 people, from 427,156 in 2021 to 541,331 people in 2046. The bulk of this growth can be seen within Caulfield, Bentleigh, Cheltenham & Malvern. The majority of housing developments will stem from medium density townhouses or medium rise apartments.

Inner-South is set to benefit from a variety of housing strategies. In the beginning & medium term of the forecast period, the Glen Eira City Council Housing Strategy aims to address the need for about 12,000-13,000 dwellings by 2036. This provides housing opportunity near rail stations such as Caulfield , Carnegie & Murrumbeena. 

Another aspect to consider is the East Village Precinct Plan which will see 2700 dwellings or more by around the early 2030s. This innovation & employment hub will provide housing opportunity within Bentleigh. 

Furthermore, Inner-South will be benefiting from the Suburban Rail Loop Precinct Plans, especially around Cheltenham. The Cheltenham Precinct Plans are have already been established and will be further cemented by the SRL coming on in the mid 2030s. Additionally, the areas near Cheltenham (such as Bentleigh & Highett) are expected to intake more infill and increased housing density to help satisfy the housing targets for the Victorian government.

Mornington Peninsula

Between 2021 and 2046, Mornington Peninsula is forecast to grow by approximately 48,000 people from 311,199 to 359, 536 or 0.6% pa. The most intensive growth is expected to be high density buildings around the centre of Frankston, with some contribution from lower density medium rise around the identified growth areas in Rosebud, Pt Nepean, Mornington and Hastings. Small scale infill is expected elsewhere.

Approximately 27,000 dwellings are forecast across the forecast period, with approximately one half assumed to be infill and the other half major developments (adding 10 or more dwellings). The most significant of these will be in the Frankston Major Activity Centre which will see approximately 1,800 additional dwellings.

What share of Australia's growth will occur in Victoria?

We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state- and regional-level forecasts for Victoria.

Access the presentation slides (including our forecast data for each region), and a short recap or the full webinar presentation on-demand. Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.

The population forecast for Victoria →

Forecast results

The following forecast information presents the numbers for Eastern Melbourne Region.

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