National and State population forecasts

Version 5.2.0
Published July 2024

 

On this page

The big stories from this briefing

Jump ahead to the data for these big stories;

The results

Here's the numbers: our 2024 population forecasts for Australia and each state and territory.

 

Australia to add 8.6 million people 2021-2046

Australia’s population has doubled since the early 70s. At the last Census in 2021, Australia's population was just over 25.5 million people. Our 2024 forecasts show Australia reaching 34.6 million by 2046 - an additional 8.9 million people. 

 

Share of growth by state

Two-thirds of Australia's total forecast growth will be in Australia's four largest states, with the lion's share occurring within the Greater capital cities of Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Perth.

Forecasts by region

Use the map below to see our latest forecasts for your region. Click any point on the map to see a link to the latest analysis from our forecasters for that region.

 

The assumptions

Take a moment to understand the assumptions that underpin our forecasts, so you can understand the results and use them with confidence. 

 

Overseas Migration

We forecast Net Overseas Migration (NOM) will stay higher for longer than official forecasts predict. As a result, we forecast Australia's population will add 750,000 more people in the next five years than the Centre for Population.

 

More births, despite a declining birth rate

A reduction in the birth rate means there are fewer births in our forecasts than previously (but we still forecast Australia's population growth will continue to grow from Natural increase (the net of births and deaths) over the next 25 years.

 

 

Life expectancy continues to defy expectations

For the last 50 years, Australian life expectancy has continued to increase at the rate of an additional year every five years, with lower mortality rates in mid-life leading to more people in their 70's and 80's. We use the high life expectancy assumption in our forecasts, which assumes it will continue to increase, rather than plateau. 

Does Australia have an ageing population?

Yes, but we need to be planning for more people in all age groups. This animated age-sex pyramid shows how the population of each five-year age group in Australia is forecast to change over the next 25 years. 

What's changed?

If you currently have our 2023-based forecasts (version 5.1.0), check out the full recording on demand for a more in-depth discussion of what's changed since May 2023, and how that new information has been reflected in our latest forecasts.

Watch the full briefing on-demand

Did you miss the live webinar? Register here to watch the full recording, including the Q&A with our expert panel. 

The recap

This video provides a brief summary of the key points from our briefing. 

The slides

Take a scroll through the briefing presentation.

 

Public resources

Find population forecasts for your local government areas, or read expert analysis for your region from our specialists. 

forecast.id

Over 130 local councils across Australia subscribe to our population forecasting tools as part of our digital information platform for local areas.

Find your LGA

forecast.id

Over 130 local councils across Australia subscribe to our population forecasting tools as part of our digital information platform for local areas.

Find your LGA

Forecast analysis

Understand what's driving change in your region with forecasts and analysis for your region.

FIND YOUR REGION

Forecast analysis

Understand what's driving change in your region with forecasts and analysis for your region.

FIND YOUR REGION

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Presented by experts from Australia's largest independent population forecasting team

Richard Thornton

Richard Thornton

Senior population forecaster

Richard has been a forecaster with .id for over 15 years, so brings a deep knowledge of places across Australia to our work. With a background in urban planning, regeneration and social housing, Richard previously worked in the housing sector in the UK and for the Victorian Government, and he regularly presents on the policy implications and challenges of demographic change for a variety of audiences.

Julie Toth

Julie Toth

Chief economist, PEXA

Julie is Chief Economist at PEXA (Australia’s central property and mortgage transactions exchange). She is an active participant in Australia’s national business, industry and economic policy conversations. Julie has worked across Australia’s public, private and non-profit sectors over the past three decades, including senior research roles at Nous Group, the Australian Industry Group, the ANZ Bank and the Productivity Commission.

Andrew Hedge

Andrew Hedge

Content and communications

Andrew shares the analysis, insights and stories of place uncovered by our forecasters as they undertake detailed research into what's driving population change in each region of Australia.

johnny

Johnny Barnard

Senior population forecaster

Johnny is a population forecaster and spatial consultant with an extraordinary knowledge of places across Australia. He has been analysing Australia’s urban changes since the late 1980s. This knowledge is now being used to inform .id’s view on population change in the post-Covid world.

Katie-K_bw

Katie King

Location strategy consultant

Building on years of experience in GIS analysis and product development, Katie works closely with our private sector clients in industries ranging from Education to Utilities and emergency services to help them use the insights from our forecasting team to make informed location and investment decisions.