National and State population forecasts
Version 5.2.0
Published July 2024
On this page
- Our latest headline population forecasts for Australia (2024-2046)
- Important assumptions underpinning the forecasts
- View the slides from our briefing
- Watch a short recap of the presentation or register to watch the full briefing on demand
- Find public forecast information for your region or LGA
- Access detailed forecast information for your area with our premium services
The big stories from this briefing
Jump ahead to the data for these big stories;
- Why we expect the post-pandemic spike in overseas migration will last longer than official forecasts
- Why we need to plan for increased demand in all age groups - not just our ageing population.
- How (and when) a revised birth rate assumption impacts our population forecast
- Why we're assuming life expectancy will continue to increase
- Where the growth is forecast to occur
Australia to add 8.6 million people 2021-2046
Australia’s population has doubled since the early 70s. At the last Census in 2021, Australia's population was just over 25.5 million people. Our 2024 forecasts show Australia reaching 34.6 million by 2046 - an additional 8.9 million people.
Share of growth by state
Two-thirds of Australia's total forecast growth will be in Australia's four largest states, with the lion's share occurring within the Greater capital cities of Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Perth.
Life expectancy continues to defy expectations
For the last 50 years, Australian life expectancy has continued to increase at the rate of an additional year every five years, with lower mortality rates in mid-life leading to more people in their 70's and 80's. We use the high life expectancy assumption in our forecasts, which assumes it will continue to increase, rather than plateau.
What's changed?
If you currently have our 2023-based forecasts (version 5.1.0), check out the full recording on demand for a more in-depth discussion of what's changed since May 2023, and how that new information has been reflected in our latest forecasts.
forecast.id
Over 130 local councils across Australia subscribe to our population forecasting tools as part of our digital information platform for local areas.
forecast.id
Over 130 local councils across Australia subscribe to our population forecasting tools as part of our digital information platform for local areas.
Forecast analysis
Understand what's driving change in your region with forecasts and analysis for your region.
Forecast analysis
Understand what's driving change in your region with forecasts and analysis for your region.
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Presented by experts from Australia's largest independent population forecasting team
Richard Thornton
Senior population forecaster
Richard has been a forecaster with .id for over 15 years, so brings a deep knowledge of places across Australia to our work. With a background in urban planning, regeneration and social housing, Richard previously worked in the housing sector in the UK and for the Victorian Government, and he regularly presents on the policy implications and challenges of demographic change for a variety of audiences.
Julie Toth
Chief economist, PEXA
Julie is Chief Economist at PEXA (Australia’s central property and mortgage transactions exchange). She is an active participant in Australia’s national business, industry and economic policy conversations. Julie has worked across Australia’s public, private and non-profit sectors over the past three decades, including senior research roles at Nous Group, the Australian Industry Group, the ANZ Bank and the Productivity Commission.
Andrew Hedge
Content and communications
Andrew shares the analysis, insights and stories of place uncovered by our forecasters as they undertake detailed research into what's driving population change in each region of Australia.
Johnny Barnard
Senior population forecaster
Johnny is a population forecaster and spatial consultant with an extraordinary knowledge of places across Australia. He has been analysing Australia’s urban changes since the late 1980s. This knowledge is now being used to inform .id’s view on population change in the post-Covid world.
Katie King
Location strategy consultant
Building on years of experience in GIS analysis and product development, Katie works closely with our private sector clients in industries ranging from Education to Utilities and emergency services to help them use the insights from our forecasting team to make informed location and investment decisions.