Quantified the number of people in Melbourne’s City of Wyndham who will require aged and disability care services in the future, so the council can plan their service response and provide information to external providers about the likely demand for these services.

Challenge

One of the most common questions we are asked is “Do you have any information on the number of people with a disability?” There is some information in the Census, but it’s fairly basic, just a Yes/No response designed to measure severe or profound disability.

The City of Wyndham approached .id to do some modelling, to estimate the likely current demand for aged and disability services in their municipality, and importantly the likely future need. What the council really wanted to know is, “What will our future rate of need for assistance be?”

.id solution

.id developed a model for more accurately quantifying this important population. Using three data sources – The Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers, the Census, and .id’s suburb-level population, .id was able to model the demand for disability services from now until 2034 for the City of Wyndham.

Outcome

Due to the substantial population growth expected in Wyndham, and the considerable ageing that goes with it, most forms of disability are expected to more than double in 20 years, with the largest increase being among those needing help with their Household Chores or Property Maintenance.

The modelling shows that over 17,000 people currently need assistance. This is much higher than the Census count, partly due to a difference in scope (the survey includes all need for assistance, while the Census is designed to measure those with a severe or profound disability), and partly due to a net under count from the Census question.

This growth is not evenly spread through the City of Wyndham. Areas which developed through the 1970s and 1980s are currently ageing rapidly and have the largest proportion of need for assistance now. But current growth areas which are just finishing up, like Point Cook, currently full of families, will have the largest increase in those aged 65+ over the next 20 years, and as a result, the largest increase in people with a need for assistance.

This analysis can be done for any area in Australia, and can logically be extended to any survey data where detailed demographic data is included. This could include rates of dementia or other specific diseases, participation in sport and leisure activities, or even crime victimisation rates.

Learn more about .id’s consulting services.

A changing age structure can pose important challenges to the housing stock of a local area. This is demonstrated in the Shire of Nillumbik, where a more diverse supply of housing is required to meet the demands of its ageing population.

Challenge
Nillumbik Shire Council was interested to understand the current and future housing needs of Nillumbik’s ageing population. The aim of this analysis was to inform the Council’s housing policy and provision of aged-care services for an increasingly significant section of the community.

The .id solution

.id’s evaluation consisted of four related components

1. demographic and socio-economic analysis of Nillumbik’s older population
2. housing stock analysis
3. drivers of change
4. forecasts of future housing needs (total dwellings, dwellings by number of bedrooms, retirement living units and aged care beds).

The analysis draws largely from .id’s online demographic resources for Nillumbik (profile.id, atlas.id and forecast.id).

The number of persons aged 55 years and over is forecast to increase from 16,732 in 2015 to 21,361 by 2036. By 2036, one in three residents in Nillumbik will be aged 55+, up from one in four in 2015.

As illustrated in the figure below, Nillumbik is on the cusp of a major transition in its housing lifecycle from mature families to empty nesters and retirees. This shift to smaller and older households will have major implications for housing option in Nillumbik over the next twenty years.

While 94% of the growth of households with persons aged 55+ will be empty nesters and lone person households, many of these residents will continue to occupy large separate houses with four or more bedrooms. An important factor is the tendency for Nillumbik residents to age in place, with the majority of those aged 55+ opting to remain in their family homes rather than relocating outside the LGA.

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2011. Compiled and presented by .id , the population experts.

Outcome

The low level of dwelling diversity in Nillumbik runs counter to the housing preferences of retirees. The 2015 Nillumbik Health and Wellbeing Survey found that 43.5% of 56-75 year-olds would like more housing choices to downsize in the local area. This finding was one of many that highlighted a mismatch between future housing demand and supply.

The challenge for local council is to implement measures to diversify the housing options (existing stock and new development) available to older residents in Nillumbik. This includes increasing the supply of 2-3 bedroom townhouses located in close proximity to services and amenities. The report also identified future demand for retirement villages and aged care facilities based on .id’s 55+ housing forecast model.

The strong pattern of ageing in place in Nillumbik looks unlikely to decrease in the coming decades. Future generations of retirees will be similarly motivated to relocate to smaller houses around existing social networks.

To accommodate this demand, the report recommends a number of strategies. The report recommends: changes to future policy direction; strategic planning activities; promotion of housing needs for older residents; actions to support for ageing in place; and economic development initiatives.

Measures to diversify the local housing stock will help to curb the out-migration of ageing residents. Many persons aged 55+ who do move have tended to seek retirement housing options in neighbouring LGAs, in particular Banyule, Whittlesea and Manningham. In addition to recapturing this migratory group, an increase in the supply of 2-3 bedroom medium density housing options may also attract younger age groups to the Shire. This strategy would help smooth out the housing lifecycle issues of one dominant group.

Alongside the increased delivery of suitable housing, further planning and policy approaches to support Nillumbik’s ageing population include promoting mixed-use developments that strengthen facilities and services relevant to older people. Moreover, urban and housing design policies can play an important role in improving the capacity of residents to age in place, while appropriate transport infrastructure can enhance safety and accessibility.

The .id 2015 Toowoomba Economic Profile, combined with economy.id, provides a great resource for prospective investors and sets the foundation for future economic strategies, council policy, community development, and land-use strategies.

The profile was launched in August 2015. By the end of 2015, over 400 copies had been downloaded and over 200 hard copies had been distributed in Australia and overseas.

Business challenge

What is the economic story of Toowoomba? What are its traditional strengths? What are its bold ambitions? How do we promote our economy? How do we plan for growth?

The .id solution

.id took a different approach to previous economic profiles by developing an economic story for Toowoomba. This approach is designed to promote the region to investors by telling the economic story rather than repeating factual statements and presenting data. Instead, we tailored the story to the audience and effectively used charts, tables and maps to complement a narrative that identifies the unique characteristics of the local area.

Outcomes – data driven success

Over its rich history, the Toowoomba region has transformed into a diverse economy, offering a range of business, investment and employment opportunities.

The economic profile highlights the economic strengths of the region and how it is changing to identify future opportunities for growth.

Links are provided in the report to the suite of .id tools for readers who require additional information.

Most topics can be monitored annually using the .id suite of online tools. This approach informs decision makers and engages stakeholders in a more meaningful way.

Download the 2015 Toowoomba region economic profile

Learn more about .id’s economic analysis services