2022 POPULATION FORECAST REVIEW

Brisbane North, 

SA4 Region Queensland

Brisbane - North is forecast to grow from a population of 228,000 to 269,000 by 2041. An increase of 41,000 persons. Housing supply continues to become available through activity centres, greenfield growth, new apartments, and infill as the region caters for higher density living.

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Published 4th October 2022

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Key Findings

Generating population forecasts for Brisbane North revealed the below key findings of the area: 

The population of Brisbane North in 2021 was 227,863. The population by 2041 is forecast to grow by 41,000 persons to reach a total population of 269,000. This is an average annual change of 0.83%

  • The number of dwellings in Brisbane North is forecast to grow from 95,000 in 2021 to 113,500 in 2041. An additional 18,500 dwellings.

  • Bridgeman Downs SA2 is forecast to have the most growth with 9.5% share of the region. This is primarily due to the rezoning of rural land to higher density residential lots for emerging communities. An additional 4,000 persons are forecast to live in Bridgeman Downs between 2021 and 2041, with an addition 1,324 dwellings.  

  • Eagle Farm – Pinkenba SA2 has an 8.6% share of the region’s growth. The Northshore Development Masterplan and inclusion of the 2032 Olympic Village will significantly add to apartment growth along the north bank of the Brisbane River. Increased residential development has been assumed in the 2030s which we will continue to monitor as plans evolve. 

  • Nundah SA2 is typical middle suburban suburb and will continue to grow at a steady pace with activity centre development around the trainline and shopping strip.

  • The age structure of Brisbane North in 2021 has 75.7% of the population of working age between 18 and 69. 12.9% as children or school aged (0 to 17), and  11.4% of the population is of retirement age. By 2041, the proportion of the retired persons will increase to 14.8% of the population. 

Read our full analysis below for a more in-depth view.

 

Geography and the role and function of place

Brisbane North SA4, is the northern part of the Brisbane LGA, directly north of Brisbane Inner City SA4. The SA4 has Brisbane River frontage in Eagle Farm – Pinkenba SA2 (including a portion of the suburb Hamilton) and extends out to Moreton Bay around the Brisbane Airport extending up to Brighton and the North Pine River. The western boundary includes the Bald Hills SA2 and the Bridgeman Downs SA2, an area currently undergoing a transformation as the land is rezoned to from rural land to emerging community and low density lots. The southern boundary includes Everton Park, Stafford, Kedron – Gordon Park and Nundah SA2s.   

The region has a northbound train line that travels through Zillmere and connects to Redcliffe and Nambour/Caboolture. There is a branch line that ends in Shorncliffe at Moreton Bay. Brisbane doesn’t have the same level of residential activity around train stations, which is more typical of Melbourne or Sydney. 

 

TOP DOWN

Brisbane North, within the Queensland context

Our forecasts reflect how the future population of a place is affected by both localised and bigger-picture factors - what we refer to as 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' influences.

Below are some relevant points from our 'top-down' forecasts (Queensland → SA4s), which were published in May 2021, and set the context for each region, or SA4, and the role it plays within the state.  

This video provides a short summary of the process.

 

Brisbane North is forecast to grow by 41,000 persons by 2041 

Australia’s population is set to grow by 5.7 million persons by 2041. Of this growth 23% is expected within Queensland, with the bulk of this growth occurring in South-East Queensland. 

In the historic period of 2001 to 2021, Brisbane North represented 15% share of population growth within Greater Brisbane.  

 

Looking forward Brisbane North will continue to play a similar role and function as it has in the past. Brisbane North is expected to grow by 41,000 persons by 2041 to 269,000, This is an average annual increase of 0.83%, a reduced average rate of growth from the previous 20 years which was 1.49%.  

 

Demographic profile

The age structure of Brisbane North in 2021 shows 75.7% of the population are of working age (between 18 and 69), 12.9% are children or school-aged (0 to 17), and  11.4% of the population is of retirement age. By 2041, the proportion of retired persons will increase to 14.8% of the population.

 

 

To hear about more of our Queensland forecast and the top-level stories watch our Queensland after Covid webinar on demand here.

 

BOTTOM UP

.id Small Area forecasts for Brisbane North

With a top-down view of the region, we are able to forecast population and dwelling growth down to SA2 and sub SA2 levels. These granular forecasts provide a view of growth that factors in what is happening on the ground to give you the most accurate population forecasts in Australia.

 

 

 

A comprehensive and balanced view of future development 

Our forecasts incorporate research into local land use and future development from a range of public and proprietary sources.

urban.com.au Nearmap Cordell Queensland treasury OpenLot.com.au Brisbane development Development-ready Callpoint spatial Realestate.com.au

Brisbane North is an established area within Greater Brisbane. Population growth will be driven by various development types (greenfield, apartment growth, and infill) to provide higher density living.   

The Bridgeman Downs and Eagle Farm - Pinkenba SA2s have the highest share of growth in the SA4. Bridgeman Downs will grow by almost 4,000 persons and Eagle Farm - Pinkenba by 3,500 persons. The Geebung SA2 has the least change with growth of 427 persons in the forecast period. 

 

 

Nundah SA2, is a typical middle suburban suburb and will continue to grow at a steady pace with activity centre development and higher density residential zoning applied near activity hubs like shopping centres and train stations.  With much of the SA2 zoned for higher density living, forecasting the timing and sequencing of each development is challenging as no historic pattern of development was identified. In the forecast period (2021 to 2041) Nundah is forecast to grow by 3,227 persons. 

Activity centre development is also expected in places such as Chermside, and Zillmere.  Zillmere SA2 is zoned for high density, however not much of this capacity has been used in our forecast period, due to lack of uptake in historic period. 

There are pockets of greenfield development in Bridgeman Downs and Bracken Ridge with the potential of land being rezoned to allow higher density lots. In Bridgeman Downs SA2 our forecasts assume approximately 50 dwelling per year to be added to the housing stock as land is turned over to developers. 1,324 new dwellings are forecast in Bridgeman Downs in the forecast period. 

In Everton Park and McDowall, development might be more fragmented as landowners subdivide their own lots to build multiple dwellings, with no overarching master plan for the area. 

There is significant investment occurring in Eagle Farm-Pinkenba with the renewal of river-side industrial land.  The Northshore Development Masterplan and inclusion of the 2032 Olympic Village will see significant apartment growth. The current plans have considerable capacity identified, which we will monitor closely as plans firm up.   

Sandgate - Shorncliffe SA2, much like the Redcliffe Peninsula as discussed in the Moreton Bay North write up, is home to a significantly higher proportion of retired persons and is assumed to play the same role in the future.  It does have pockets that are zoned for higher density lots, such as around activity centres. However, historically there has been little demand or desire to develop these lots, and as such we have not forecast this type of development to take off in the forecast period. 

Development Hotspots

Over the forecast period, Brisbane North is forecast to grow from 95,000 dwellings in 2021 to 113,500 dwellings by 2041. This is an additional 18,500 dwellings.  

In the previous 5 years (16 to 21), Chermside SA2 had the most dwelling growth with an additional 1,271 dwellings, closely followed by Eagle Farm, Bridgeman Downs and Nundah. In the forecast period, activity centre development continues in Nundah and Chermisde, there is significant development with new apartments in Eagle Farm - Pinkenba, and greenfield development in Bridgeman Downs and Everton Park. 

Whilst reviewing housing supply for the SA4 our team identified capacity for 43,000 new dwellings. This is inflated due to the Olympic Village. Of the supply identified, we have used approximately two thirds of it during the forecast period.  

 

 

 

Areas of note

  • Eagle Farm – Pinkenba SA2 has the Northshore Development / Olympic Village Masterplan. The overall capacity of this SA2 based on all research to date is over 6000 dwellings, which we believe to be an excess of supply. Our forecasts assume an increase of 2,347 dwellings in the forecast period (to 2041). 

This detail can be explored further within our Residential Development Forecasts.

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Commentary and analysis from our specialist forecasters.

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Principal forecaster
Liza Ivanova

Liza Ivanova

Population forecaster
Richard Thornton

Richard Thornton

Population forecaster
Chris_Jones

Chris Jones

Population forecaster
Oliver Bowering

Oliver Bowering

Population forecaster
john-o

John O'Leary

Forecast modelling

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Public resources for local areas

The Brisbane North SA4 is covered by the City of Brisbane, which doesn't currently subscribe to our public information tools.

Find resources for other parts of South East Queensland and Australia via our demographic resource centre.

Your questions answered

Do you have a question about our forecasts, our assumptions or about the Brisbane Inner City SA4 Region? You can submit a question to our team by emailing locationdecisions@id.com.au

Request a copy of our forecast data for Brisbane Inner City SA4 Region.