2022 POPULATION FORECAST REVIEW

Brisbane - West, 

SA4 Region Queensland

Brisbane - West is forecast to grow from a population of 192,000 in 2021 to 213,000 by 2041. Indooroopilly is forecast to account for 34% of the region's population growth. Whilst half of the SA2s will grow primarily through infill at approximately 10 dwellings per annum. 

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Published 1st November 2022

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Key Findings

The population of Brisbane - West in 2021 is 192,000. The population by 2041 is forecast to grow by 21,000 persons to reach a population of 213,000. 

  • The population of Brisbane - West in 2021 was 192,000. The population is forecast to grow by 21,000 persons to reach a population 213,000 by 2041. This is an average annual change of 0.52%, significantly less than the previous 20 years which was at 1.18%.

  • The number of dwellings in Brisbane - East is forecast to grow from 72,000 in 2021 to 81,600 in 2041. An additional 9,600 dwellings.

  • Indooroopilly SA2 is a significant Activity Centre Zone that will see apartment growth over the next 20+ years. It has by far the largest share of growth in Brisbane – West, accounting for 33% of the share of the regions growth between 2021 and 2041. It is expected to add on average 150 dwellings per year over the forecast period.

  • St Lucia is home to The University of Queensland, and therefore has a high student population with higher density zones for apartments and student accommodation. 

  • Taringa and Sherwood have Activity Centre Zones, being on the train line and close to The University of Queensland (UQ).

  • Upper Kedron has the only major greenfield development in the SA4, Ellendale Estate. It is currently halfway through development.

  • The majority of SA2’s have little growth forecast. The main driver of growth for half of the SA2’s (12 in total) is low yield infill. These SA2's have an average of less than 10 dwellings a year.

  • The Centenary suburbs, on the south side of the Brisbane River, were envisioned in 1959, in celebration of Queensland’s Centenary Year. By 1961 the Council agreed on plans and construction began in these suburbs. There is little opportunity to further develop in these established suburbs built in the 60s and 70s. 

  • The Gap is a leafy suburb with established homes of reasonable size that attract mature families with school aged children.  

  • Enoggera has a metropolitan military camp. Our forecasts have assumed this military camp continues as is. As an area with non-private dwellings (NPD)s the population of the area will remain fairly static as people of specific ages move into and out of the facility. The primary age group is 20 to 24year olds. 

Read on below for charts, maps and tables sharing the forecast results at SA2 geography. 

 

Geography and the role and function of place

Brisbane - West SA4 is a leafy region of SEQ. It is home to many forests and Reserves. Mt Coot-tha Reserve, Moggill Forest Reserve, D'Aguilar National Park, Brisbane Forest Park, with Enoggera Reservoir, and Ashgrove Scenic Reserve. These forests in the west of Brisbane extend to over 40,000 hectares of continuous forest habitat. Mount Coot-tha SA2 and Enoggera Reservoir SA2 have zero population, and the surrounding areas like The Gap and Brookfield - Kenmore Hills have established suburbs that make the most of the natural environment with large blocks that typically suit mature families. 

To the north of the SA4, their is some activity development along the Ferny Grove train line (Upper Kedron, Keperra and Mitchelton). Likewise in Indooroopilly, on the Ipswich train like which is expected to see the most growth in the forecast period. 

The role and function of a place can be revealed by exploring the age structure and migration profile an area. Brisbane - West caters for three distinct life stages in various areas of the SA4. St Lucia, Taringa, and parts of Indooroopilly caters for students and young persons due to close proximity to The University of Queensland (UQ). Indooroopilly SA2 also has a young persons profile to young families. Whilst in the established suburbs, such as The Gap and Fig Tree Pocket, cater for mature families.
  

 

TOP DOWN

Brisbane - West, within the Queensland context

Our forecasts reflect how the future population of a place is affected by both localised and bigger-picture factors - what we refer to as 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' influences.

Below are some relevant points from our 'top-down' forecasts (Queensland → SA4s), which were published in May 2021, and set the context for each region, or SA4, and the role it plays within the state.  

This video provides a short summary of the process.

 

Brisbane - West is forecast to grow by 21,000 persons by 2041, to have a total population of 213,000. 

Australia’s population is set to grow by 5.7 million persons by 2041. Of this growth 23% is expected within Queensland, with the bulk of this growth occurring in South-East Queensland. 

Of this growth, Brisbane - West is expected to grow by 21,000 persons by 2041. This is less growth than the previous 20 year period where the region grew by 40,000 persons.  

 

Growth in Brisbane - West will continue based on the availability of new land through  activity centre growth, low yield infill, and some small greenfield development. 

To hear about more of our Queensland forecast and the top-level stories watch our Queensland after Covid webinar on demand here.

 

BOTTOM UP

.id Small Area forecasts for Brisbane - West

With a top-down view of the region, we are able to forecast population and dwelling growth down to SA2 and sub SA2 levels. These granular forecasts provide a view of growth that factors in what is happening on the ground to give you the most accurate population forecasts in Australia.

 

 

 

A comprehensive and balanced view of future development 

Our forecasts incorporate research into local land use and future development from a range of public and proprietary sources.

urban.com.au Nearmap Cordell Queensland treasury OpenLot.com.au Brisbane development Development-ready Callpoint spatial Realestate.com.au

Indooroopilly accounts for 34% of the region's population growth, as higher density living becomes available. 

Below we share the change in population by SA2 for Brisbane - West, as well as the share of forecast growth for the area. We also present a map of the forecast population at 5-year intervals from 2016 to 2021.

What we notice about Brisbane - West is that growth is not ubiquitous across the region. Indooroopilly contributes 34% of the growth in the region in the next 20 years, primarily due to higher density living near the activity centre. Upper Kedron – Ferny Grove contributes 10.8% of the share of growth with the one of the two greenfield estates, Ellendale Estate currently under construction in the SA4.

The majority of SA2s have little forecast growth. The main driver of growth for half of the SA2s (12 in total) is low yield infill with an average of less than 10 dwellings a year.  

At the end of the forecast period (2041), Indooroopilly will have the largest population of the SA2s in the region with 20,850 persons, an additional 7,100 persons from today.  

 

 

 

Development Hotspots

Over the forecast period, Brisbane - West is forecast to grow from 72,000 dwellings in 2021 to 81,600 dwellings by 2041. This is an additional 9,600 dwellings. 

Whilst reviewing housing supply our team identified capacity for 18,000 new dwellings, of which approximately half is used in the forecast period. Should population demand increase there is available supply to bring forward.  

 

 

Significant Sites: 

  • Ellendale Estate, in Upper Kedron SA2 is currently underway. Stage 1 began in 2018, and Stage 3 is forecast to be completed around 2031. The overall total capacity is around 900 dwellings. 
  • The former quarry of Keperra has begun site works. The total capacity of this development is 700 dwellings. 

This detail can be explored further within our Residential Development Forecasts.

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Commentary and analysis from our specialist forecasters.

Johnny Barnard

Johnny Barnard

Principal forecaster
Liza Ivanova

Liza Ivanova

Population forecaster
Richard Thornton

Richard Thornton

Population forecaster
Chris_Jones

Chris Jones

Population forecaster
Oliver Bowering

Oliver Bowering

Population forecaster
john-o

John O'Leary

Forecast modelling

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Public resources for local areas

The Brisbane South SA4 is covered by the City of Brisbane, which doesn't currently subscribe to our public information tools.

Find resources for other parts of South East Queensland and Australia via our demographic resource centre.

Your questions answered

Do you have a question about our forecasts, our assumptions or about the Brisbane Inner City SA4 Region? You can submit a question to our team by emailing locationdecisions@id.com.au

Request a copy of our forecast data for Brisbane Inner City SA4 Region.