POPULATION FORECAST REVIEW
Ipswich Region, Queensland
A favourable economic outlook, protection from the population impacts of pandemic and an abundance of greenfield and higher-density housing supply combines to make Ipswich the fastest-growing region in Queensland over the next 20 years, according to our latest forecasts.
Detailed forecasts are available for this region
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- Forecasts by age and sex
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- Custom local area geography
- Forecasts of housing and development
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The insights and analysis behind our forecasts of population and dwellings for Ipswich, Queensland.
Top-down
How the big picture stories will impact the future population of Ipswich.
- The national and state context
- Forecasting growth South vs North of Brisbane
- The role and function of Ipswich as a region
- The impact of Covid-19
Bottom-up
How available housing and planned development are forecast to distribute the population across the region.
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Johnny Barnard
Principal forecaster
Liza Ivanova
Population forecaster
Richard Thornton
Population forecaster
Chris Jones
Population forecaster
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Oliver Bowering
Population forecaster
John O'Leary
Forecast modelling
Defining 'Regions'
The role and function of Ipswich
As a region of Greater Brisbane, Ipswich is enormous, spanning over 100 kilometres from Somerset Dam and Esk in the North to Mount Barney and the Scenic Rim in the South. The area encompasses a wide variety of housing markets and population densities. So while it’s not useful to characterise the region as a whole, understanding the role and function of growth areas within Ipswich is a good way to explain how demographic forces will influence the population of Ipswich.
Avoiding the brunt of the pandemic's population impacts
Ipswich, along with the neighbouring Logan-Beaudesert region, services the outward expansion of suburban Brisbane, which is limited in terms of its capacity for additional housing supply. The most significant driver of population growth in Ipswich is intra-state migration - mostly the outward expansion from the South and South-Western suburbs of Brisbane City. While Ipswich does get some growth from overseas migration, and our forecasts reflect this in the total forecast for the region (SA4) and the different areas within (SA2s), you can see in the chart below it doesn't rely on overseas migration anywhere near as much as the Gold Coast, which will be much more significantly impacted by the population effects of the pandemic.
Economic self-containment and the link with Brisbane
While the City of Ipswich is only one of five LGAs in and around the Ipswich region, it includes the significant growth areas of Ripley and Springfield. As at the last Census, 47% of the City's resident workers were employed locally, making it more self-contained than neighbouring Logan City, where only 40% of residents work locally. 40% of the remaining employed residents commute to Brisbane, but only 6% of all the city’s employed residents travel to work by train.
These people are clustered, as you might expect, around the Ipswich and Springfield train lines. A proposal to build a 25-kilometre rail line from Springfield Central to Ipswich Central would complete the loop and service the Ripley growth area. Support for such infrastructure projects is one of the things we consider when we make the assumption that there will be an increase in the number of higher-density dwellings being constructed and the proportion of the population living in them.
City of Ipswich, People who travelled to work on public transport, 2016
Constraining growth (every developer can't be right)
Perhaps the most important thing about our top-down forecast model is it quantifies the demand for housing in an area, and in doing so, provides a constraint for the growth expected in a given area.
The purpose of our bottom-up research is to distribute the ‘target’ population across the hundreds of small areas that make up a region. To do this, we conduct in-depth research to identify the timing, location and sequence of significant sources of new dwellings. Our forecasters then make decisions to match the forecast population with the forecast supply of dwellings. In most cases, not all planned development is used.
This information is available either as evidence of our forecast assumptions or as a stand-alone forecast of residential development. Learn more here or contact our team for more information.
Ripley
The SA2 of Ripley includes the localities of Ripley, Ripley South, Deebing Heights, Swanbank, White Rock and Spring Mountain. Together, our forecasts have these areas adding 97,000 people by 2041, accounting for one-third of all the forecast population growth for the entire Ipswich region over the next 20 years. Even so, we're still slightly more conservative in our growth forecasts than many developers.
The Ripley Valley is a Priority Development Area (PDA), with a number of developers including Stockland, Sekisui House, AV Jennings, Satterley, Monterea and Goldfields all advertising new developments in the area.
We have identified 40,000 potential dwellings in the Ripley SA2, each at various stages of development. We assess and sequence each of these sites to inform our view of the timing, location, and sequencing of housing supply. Our forecasters then match these dwellings to the forecast population.
Surprisingly, the ABS has not divided the Ripley SA2 with the new 2021 Census geographies, so it will remain one of the largest SA2s covered by our National Forecasting Program. For anyone making decisions about where to locate businesses or forecasting demand for services, a much more granular view of the future population is necessary - even the SA1s within those SA2s don't provide adequate detail. Johnny's video below explains why (and how) we divide up these SA1s into micro-geography forecast areas for our forecast outputs.
What we're monitoring in Ripley
- The rate of construction and occupancy of higher-density dwellings (apartments)
- A proposed train line extension from Springfield to Ipswich that would service the Ripley Town Centre
Opposite: Artist's impression of Ripley Town Centre (Sekisui House)
Springfield
Established in 1992, Springfield is a master-planned community that has been a significant growth area for the past 30 years and is now an established area. 'Greater Springfield' covers the Springfield, Springfield Lakes, and the Bellbird Park-Brookwater SA2s - three of the top ten areas driving growth in the Ipswich region in our table above. Combined, these areas account for 28% of the forecast growth in Ipswich by 2041.
The Aveo Springfield retirement village and the Education City Residential Village that's part of the University of Southern Queensland campus both have interesting implications for the age structure of the population in these communities.
As in Ripley, we will be monitoring how many people choose to live in higher-density dwellings around Springfield Central. Our development site research has 10,000 apartments identified in the area to the North of the train station alone. Our top-down model demands that these higher-density sites be used to accommodate the population we have forecast for the region, but it's one we'll be watching closely, as these apartments haven't been built yet, and the next few years will reveal the extent to which the market supports this paradigm shift in housing, especially considering there will be a steady supply of more traditional detached housing in greenfield sites nearby for much of the forecast period.
Opposite: The Brisbane Lions' new administrative facility and AFLW home ground adjoins Springfield Central station at The Reserve, Springfield
The Greater Springfield suburb map
(Greater Springfield Town Centre concept plan)
Greater Springfield forecast areas
Source: .id Placemaker
Our micro-geography forecast output breaks the Greater Springfield area down into 53 forecast small areas.
Remnant supply in established areas (large site intensification)
In some of the older parts of Ipswich (within the Redbank Plains and Bellbird Park SA2s), there are many examples of large-lot residential land (many are 1-acre blocks) that are zoned for higher densities.
In recent years, a number of these large properties have been turned over and now have 10-15 dwellings on them. We have therefore included these large-lot sites as another source of dwellings that we expect to become available in the forecast period and therefore influence the distribution of the population within the region.
Residential in-fill
Similarly, we forecast a rate of infill that will occur in established parts of Ipswich where lower-density dwellings (standalone homes) are expected to be converted to dual occupancy and four-or-six apartments on a single site. Any sites that are forecast to add over 10 dwellings are captured within the development forecasts outlined above.
Opposite: An example of a street of very low density lots in an area zoned for 2-storey medium residential development (Ipswich City Planning Scheme)
