Key findings
Logan-Beaudesert
The ERP in the Logan-Beaudesert region crossed the 400,000 threshold in the early 2024. By the mid-2046, we anticipate this region to be home to over 600,000 residents, adding an estimated 255,700 residents since the 2021 census. In the 25 years to 2046, Logan-Beaudesert would have built close to 100,000 private dwellings, largely maintained the current average household size, and "recovered" from the ultra low vacancy rates observed during the Covid outbreak and its immediate aftermath.
While population growth is strong in most areas across the Logan-Beaudesert region, of particular note are the two PDAs of Greater Flagstone and Yarrabilba, as well as the large tracts of recent emerging community zoned land converting to residential across Boronia Heights - Park Ridge, Chambers Flat - Logan Reserve, and Greenbank - North Maclean SA2s. The ERP of Chambers Flat - Logan Reserve, Flagstone (West) - New Beith, and Yarrabilba SA2s is predicted to increase to 5 times the population at 2021 census by 2046. While the Yarrabilba PDA will be largely complete by 2046, as will greenfield residential land run out across suburbs such as Boronia Heights, Park Ridge, Chambers Flat, and North Maclean, the Greater Flagstone PDA will have at least another decade of growth to realise.
Besides largely rural properties turning over to general residential densities, some of the established suburbs around Logan City are likely to experience densification, particularly around train stations or upzoned strips adjoining major road networks. For example, we anticipate an increased uptake of medium and high density around the Loganlea and Beenleigh train stations in the medium and long-term, as well as continued turnover along the Pacific Motorway in Loganholme and Tanah Merah suburbs. Similarly, the growth projected for Springwood will stem primarily from apartment construction in and around the suburb's activity centre in zoned precincts.
On the other hand, some established suburbs are expected to undergo very little growth, and may in fact show an overall population decline by the end of the forecast period. Principally, this concerns suburbs with a historically disadvantaged population, such as Marsden and Crestmead, where there is a net outflow to the adjacent Park Ridge and Logan Reserve for advancement opportunities. There is little currently planned in way of an organised uplift of these suburbs to help retain those most likely to depart, while the flow on effect of the upcoming Olympic Games is not yet clear (e.g. the planned indoor stadium in Logan Central). We will continue to monitor these areas for any revitalisation plans that may result in population growth.
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