Scenario Modelling for the Blackwattle Bay Precinct

Overview

Blackwattle Bay is a 10.4ha precinct close to Sydney's CBD that has been rezoned to generate employment and housing in a highly accessible, high amenity area. The redevelopment aims to leverage the new Sydney Fish Market development and a new metro station to be built in Pyrmont as part of Sydney Metro West.
  
.id was engaged by Infrastructure NSW (formerly Urban Growth NSW) to develop a population and employment profile of the existing area and forecast scenarios to inform the Planning Proposal and stakeholder engagement for the precinct.

Our method

.id built a comprehensive profile of the precinct and the surrounding catchment area by utilising our detailed small area demographic and economic data. A time series element was included to show historical change and highlight how the proposed change was part of a large process of urban transformation.
   
.id then developed population and employment models that were utilised in multiple report iterations as the precinct plan and associated dwelling/industry/timing mix changed.
 
The model and its outputs were informed by:

• Precinct structure assumptions: Forecasts factored in dwelling construction rates, dwelling types, residential vs non-residential mix, floor space ratios, commercial demand (supplied by independent consultants) and staging plans.

• Benchmark analysis: Comparing Blackwattle Bay's potential new redevelopment to similar existing areas (waterside, mixed use), including Pyrmont/Jones Bay, Dawes Point, Finger Wharf, Kingston Foreshore (ACT), and Docklands - New Quay (Victoria).

• Base catchment comparison: Evaluation of the population profile and industry mix in the Prymont-Ultimo catchment area to explore likely make up and/or capacity take-up.

• Demographic and employment trends: As the development would happen over a long time frame, trends and forces (e.g. COVID) impacting household makeup and labour force outcomes (e.g. participation rates) were incorporated into the model.

This approach ensured the forecasts were grounded in a clear understanding of demographic change drivers and local context.

Highlights

The scenario modelling provided insights into the likely development outcome:

• Benchmark profile close to Docklands: The nearest approximate benchmark area to the proposed level of density landed on after multiple planning iterations was Docklands-New Quay in Melbourne. The existing demographic profile (young couples and lone person households) also closely resembled the forecast demographics.

• Affluent households, higher share of middle aged couples than benchmark areas: The most common resident profile under all scenarios was young professional couples. Given the development type and location, middle aged residents were expected to take up a larger share of dwellings than the broader catchment and benchmark areas (such as Docklands).

• High professional services: The scenario considered most likely given planning assumptions and nearby catchment structure was a high % of employment (45%) in professional, scientific, and technical services. Retail and food/beverage services were lower than that suggested in benchmark areas due to the adjacency to the new Sydney Fish Market (which would provide these services in high quantity).

The likely outcome was adjusted throughout .id's project time with Infrastructure NSW. The impact on the residential and employment mix of the surrounding catchment over the development timeline was also presented.

Results

.id provided Infrastructure NSW with:

• A robust evidence base: The population and employment forecasts were aligned with the objectives of the Planning Proposal.

• Integrated planning insights: The forecasts supported related projects, including community infrastructure planning and transport modelling.

• Clear scenario outcomes: The analysis helped outline the potential demographic and employment changes, aiding informed decision-making about the precinct’s future.

Infrastructure NSW's trust in .id's forecasting expertise was demonstrated by a project relationship spanning five years.

About our consulting team

Our consulting team is engaged by councils and organisations across Australia to provide in-depth insights behind the data. Our experts draw on their knowledge of urban and regional economic development and years of experience working with decision makers across Australia. This information is used by councils to develop evidence based strategies and action plans.

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