Scenario Modelling for the Waterloo Precinct

Overview

The Waterloo Precinct, located around 4 km south of Sydney's Central Business District (CBD), is undergoing a long-term urban renewal project initiated by Urban Growth NSW in 2015. The redevelopment aims to leverage the new metro station, replacing and expanding social housing while introducing affordable and private housing to create a mixed community.

.id was engaged to develop population and employment forecast scenarios to inform the Planning Proposal for the precinct, including dwelling yields, built form, and staging plans.

Our method

.id applied its forecasting model to create a range of scenarios informed by:

• Key inputs and assumptions: Factoring in dwelling construction rates, formats, and staging plans, and their potential impacts on demographic outcomes.
• Benchmark analysis: Comparing Waterloo's redevelopment to similar areas with distinct demographic profiles, including Pyrmont, Mascot, Zetland, Ultimo, and Kings Cross/Potts Point.
• Base case comparison: Including a scenario assuming no redevelopment to highlight the potential impacts of the project.
• Employment projections: Extending the population forecast to align employment projections with expected demographic changes.
• This approach ensured the forecasts were grounded in a clear understanding of demographic change drivers and local context.

Highlights

The scenario modelling provided insights into several potential outcomes:

• No redevelopment (base case): The precinct would maintain a majority of social housing, with an aging population, increasing lone-person households, and lower income levels.
• Market-led redevelopment scenarios:
  • A demographic profile similar to Pyrmont or Mascot, with young professionals attracted by proximity to knowledge jobs.
  • A profile resembling Zetland, reflecting an average City of Sydney demographic mix.
  • A student-focused profile similar to Ultimo, due to nearby educational institutions.
  • A mixed-age and income demographic, like Kings Cross/Potts Point, resulting from diverse housing options.

The likely outcome was identified as a combination of these scenarios, reflecting the precinct’s current social housing role alongside new demographic influences.

Results

.id provided UrbanGrowth NSW with:

• A robust evidence base: The population and employment forecasts were aligned with the objectives of the Planning Proposal.
• Integrated planning insights: The forecasts supported related projects, including community infrastructure planning and transport modelling.
• Clear scenario outcomes: The analysis helped outline the potential demographic and employment changes, aiding informed decision-making about the precinct’s future.

The modelling supported UrbanGrowth NSW in planning for a community that accommodates existing residents while adapting to future demographic and employment trends.

About our consulting team

Our consulting team is engaged by councils and organisations across Australia to provide in-depth insights behind the data. Our experts draw on their knowledge of urban and regional economic development and years of experience working with decision makers across Australia. This information is used by councils to develop evidence based strategies and action plans.

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