Why timing matters: Aligning infrastructure with development growth

How detailed development forecasts support infrastructure planning

With detailed, residential development forecasts, planners can anticipate the shifting front of growth, avoid misallocated investment, and ensure infrastructure is delivered in the right place at the right time.

A client recently shared how .id’s residential development forecasts, part of the National Forecasting Program, supported a strategic infrastructure decision by helping them understand when and where residential development would occur, not just in broad terms, but with year-by-year detail.

This example reflects a common challenge for infrastructure providers: making investment decisions in the face of leapfrog development, where growth doesn’t always unfold sequentially but in disconnected or unpredictable clusters. Understanding not just the location, but the timing and sequence of new development can be key to aligning infrastructure with future demand.

An illustrative scenario

Let’s look at an example using forecast residential development in Melbourne’s northern growth corridor, around the Beveridge, Kalkallo and Mickleham area. This corridor, like many others across Australia, is experiencing rapid expansion, but in a pattern that often skips over parcels of land or advances in patches, depending on planning approvals, infrastructure availability and market conditions.

In this scenario, an infrastructure provider is planning to service new development. One option is to extend the electricity network from Beveridge, where development is already underway. Another is to connect from the south, near Mickleham, where major infrastructure exists but growth hasn’t yet peaked.

At first glance, extending from Beveridge seems like the logical short-term choice. But when planners examine the sequence of forecast development over the next 10 to 20 years, a more strategic option begins to emerge.

What the forecasts show

.id’s residential development forecasts provide a time-based, location-specific view of dwelling delivery:

• 2025–2030: Growth is concentrated in Beveridge. Extending from here aligns with near-term demand.

• 2030–2035: Development continues in Beveridge, with early signs of expansion southward.

• 2035–2040: The growth front shifts, filling in the corridor toward Mickleham.

• 2040–2045: Mickleham becomes the new centre of residential development.

This progression shows how the optimal infrastructure connection point can shift depending on the time horizon in question.

Why this perspective matters

Infrastructure providers already conduct detailed modelling and analysis to plan their networks. These models incorporate a wide range of inputs and are essential for long-term strategy. A key part of the evidence base is often state government population forecasts, which provide an official view of expected growth. These are critical reference points for aligning infrastructure with policy and demand.

Adding detail to the picture

While state forecasts are important, they typically operate at broad geographic scales and do not always include detailed assumptions about where, when and how development will occur within those areas.

.id’s forecasts offer a complementary layer of insight. We conduct detailed, site-by-site research into the housing supply pipeline and publish this as a structured dataset, complete with explicit modelling of timing and delivery. This includes:

• More spatial granularity – built from the ground up using site-level data on all known development sites expected to deliver 10 or more dwellings

• Transparency about inputs and assumptions – informed by aerial imagery, development activity databases, structure plan analysis, advertised projects and engagement with hundreds of councils

• Integration with demographic demand modelling – ensuring delivery timelines are grounded in population-led housing demand

By combining bottom-up development research with top-down demographic modelling, planners gain a realistic, time-specific view of how residential communities are likely to take shape — not just in aggregate, but block by block, year by year.

Key benefits for infrastructure planning

This level of detail helps infrastructure providers:

• Understand the forecast sequence of growth, not just the end state

• Identify ultimate forecast capacity in an area and specify infrastructure accordingly, ensuring it can support long-term demand

• Avoid both over-investment and under-investment, whether that’s costly “gold-plating” or premature infrastructure upgrades due to underestimated growth

• Plan ahead for leapfrog development, where growth doesn’t follow a simple, sequential rollout

The takeaway

This example shows how seeing beyond the immediate growth front, and understanding the timing and sequence of future development, can reshape infrastructure decisions. For providers balancing short-term delivery with long-term resilience, it’s a powerful additional layer of evidence to inform already sophisticated planning processes.