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Population forecast analysis

Read the research and analysis from our National Forecasting Program..

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Australia
Victoria
New South Wales
Queensland
Western Australia
South Australia
Tasmania
Northern Territory
Australian Capital Territory

Analysis from by the National Forecasting Program

This page shares analysis to accompany our population, housing and development forecasts for each region of Australia.

All the forecasting services from .id (informed decisions) are powered by data from our National Forecasting Program. This unique research project develops forecasts of population, housing and residential development for the Nation, each state and territory, each region, and detailed local area forecasts for each of the 15,000+ suburbs across Australia.

The program follows an annual cycle, with new forecasts completed one region at a time.

National forecasting program Cycle diagram (1)

Where can I see local (small area) forecasts?

We publicly share our forecast results and analysis down to a regional level. Our detailed local area forecasts are made available via a range of forecasting services, from one-off reports to data partnerships.

Our forecasting services →

Australia

How will the population of Australia change over the next 25 years? What is driving this growth? How will this growth be shared between the States and Territories?

This national forecast is the starting point in our forecasting process, setting a total growth forecast that is then shared between the states, territory and each region of Australia.

Victoria

We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state and regional-level forecasts for Victoria.

Access the presentation slides, a short recap or watch the full webinar presentation on demand.

Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.

Ballarat

The Ballarat and North West region comprises two SA4s, Ballarat and North West. This region is forecast to account for 2% of the total population growth of Victoria between 2021 and 2046.

Melbourne Inner

The Melbourne Inner region comprises a single SA4, Melbourne Inner. This region is forecast to provide 12.9% of Victoria's population growth between 2021 and 2046.

Northern Melbourne

With 21% of Victoria's forecast growth to 2046, the wider Northern Melbourne region encompasses the 'Melbourne - North East' and 'Melbourne - North West' regions (SA4s).

Eastern Melbourne

With 7% of Victoria's population growth to 2046, the wider Eastern Melbourne region encompasses the 'Melbourne - Inner East' and 'Melbourne - Outer East' SA4s.

DRC image Melbourne West Forecast reviews

Western Melbourne

The Western Melbourne region comprises a single SA4, Melbourne West. This region is forecast to account for 21% of the total population growth of Victoria between 2021 and 2046.

Melbourne South-East

The South East Melbourne region comprises a single SA4, Melbourne - South East. This region is forecast to account for 15% of the total population growth of Victoria between 2021 and 2046.

Bendigo

The Bendigo region contains the City of Greater Bendigo along the Shire of Loddon, the Shire of Mount Alexander and part of the Shire of Macedon Ranges. The region is forecast to account for 2% of the total population growth of Victoria between 2021 and 2046.

Gippsland

The Gippsland region stretches from the easternmost borders of the Greater Melbourne Metropolitan area to the Victorian border with NSW. Gippsland is forecast to account for 2% of the total population growth of Victoria between 2021 and 2046.

Geelong and West Coast

The Geelong & West Coast region comprises of two SA4s, Geelong and Warrnambool & South West. This region is forecast to account for 7% of the total population growth within Victoria from 2021-2046.

DRC image Southern Melbourne and Peninsula

Southern Melbourne and the Mornington Peninsula

The Southern Melbourne region comprises of two SA4s, Melbourne - Inner South, and Melbourne - Mornington Peninsula. This region is forecast to account for 6% of the total population growth of Victoria between 2021 and 2046.

North East and Goulburn Valley

The Greater North East and Goulburn Valley Region comprises of two SA4s - Hume and Shepparton regions

Southern Melbourne and the Mornington Peninsula

New South Wales

New South Wales & the ACT

We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state and regional-level forecasts for New South Wales and the ACT.

Access the presentation slides, a short recap or watch the full webinar presentation on demand.

Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.

City and Southern Sydney

This region is forecast to account for 17.2% of the total population growth of New South Wales between 2021 and 2046.

Parramatta

Parramatta is a stand-alone region in our forecast analysis. Read our forecaster's notes for that region (SA4 here)

Forecast review DRC Image Sydney South West

South West Sydney

The wider Sydney South West region covers the regions (SA4s) of Sydney - South West and Sydney - Outer South West

Parramatta

Parramatta is a stand-alone region in our forecast analysis. Read our forecaster's notes for that region (SA4 here)

Forecast review DRC Image North West Sydney

Sydney North West

The wider Sydney North West covers Baulkham Hills and Hawkesbury, Blacktown, and Sydney's Outer West and Blue Mountains regions.

Illawarra-South Coast

The wider Illawarra-South Coast region covers the Illawarra, Southern Highlands and Shoalhaven and Capital regions of New South Wales.

Riverina

Growth in the Riverna-Murray region is centred around key population centres, with rural areas remaining relatively unchanged in population numbers but experiencing an ageing of the community.

Forecast review DRC image Hunter Valley (1)

Hunter-Central Coast

The Hunter - Central Coast region covers the Central Coast, Hunter Valley, Newcastle and Lake Macquarie. This region is forecast to hold an 11% share of New South Wales' population growth by 2046.

North Coast - New England

The North Coast - New England region consists of four SA4s, namely, Richmond-Tweed, Coffs Harbour-Grafton, Mid North Coast, and New England and North West. This region is predicted to hold a 7% share of New South Wales' population growth between 2021 and 2046.

DRC image Northern Beaches Forecast reviews

North Sydney

The Northern Sydney region compromises of 3 SA4s that being: Sydney – Northern Beaches, Sydney – Ryde, and Sydney – North Sydney & Hornsby. This region is forecast to provide around 9% of New South Wales’ population growth between 2021 and 2046.

Western Australia

We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state and regional-evel forecasts for Western Australia.

Access the presentation slides, a short recap or watch the full webinar presentation on demand.

Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.

Wheatbelt

We forecast growth in Albany, coastal areas and regional centres, whilst other areas maintain a stable but ageing population or experience decline.

Outback regions

Growth in the Western Australian Outback mainly around larger centres, particularly Geraldton, and cities/towns involved in servicing the mining industry and tourism.

Perth - Inner

Over the forecast period, Perth - Inner is expected to grow from 87,160 to 116,207 dwellings, an additional 29,000 dwellings by 2046, with the population increasing from 188, 872 to 250, 147 over the same period, an increase of 61,275 people.

Bunbury

The story of population growth in the Bunbury SA4 is not one of any single town - there are several key growth fronts in the greater region.

Perth - South East

The Perth - South East region is forecast to add 265,000 people in the period 2021-2046, growing by 48%.

Perth - North East

Over the forecast period, Perth - North East is expected to grow from 112,711 to 155,766 dwellings, an additional 43,000 dwellings by 2046.

Perth - South West

We forecast an increase of 172,566 in the population and an anticipated growth of 83,396 in dwellings for the Perth-South West region from 2026 to 2046.

Mandurah

Over the 20-year period from 2026 to 2046, a forecast increase of 58,179 in population and a growth of 26,130 in dwellings is anticipated for the region.

Perth - North West

The Perth - North West region is expected to grow strongly from 2021 to 2046. This growth will mostly be concentrated in the Northern Growth areas of the City of Wanneroo, which has experienced substantial population growth since the early 2000s, incorporating many parts of the City into the contiguous urban area of Perth.

Queensland

We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state and regional-evel forecasts for Queensland.

Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.

Access the presentation slides or watch the full webinar presentation on demand.

Logan-Beaudesert

This continued southward expansion of Greater Brisbane is forecast to make Logan-Beaudesert the third-fastest growing region in Queensland in the next twenty years.

Ipswich

A favourable economic outlook, protection from the population impacts of pandemic and an abundance of greenfield and high-density housing supply combines to make Ipswich the fastest-growing region in Queensland over the next 20 years, according to our latest forecast.

Gold Coast

Sustained population growth and a forecast shift from the greenfield development that has driven growth in recent years: in this update, we unpack these and other insights from our latest population forecasts for the Gold Coast region - the first in our South East Queensland series.

Sunshine Coast

This Sunshine Coast is a large and diverse region with significant population growth forecast. Home to some of Australia's largest master planned communities which are already underway, the lion's share of development over the next 20 years is forecast to happen in just one corner of the region.

Moreton Bay North

The SA4 of Moreton Bay North is within South-East Queensland, north of Brisbane. It acts as a growth area for the north of Brisbane, with greenfield development as people move further out of the city.

Moreton Bay South

The SA4 of Moreton Bay - South is located in South-East Queensland, north of Brisbane. It is a well established area with limited significant growth fronts. While the population is forecast to grow by 66,650 persons in the two decades to 2041, it is characterised by dwindling greenfield land supply. This will result in the urban densification and verticalisation of the region.

Brisbane North

Brisbane - North is forecast to grow from a population of 228,000 to 269,000 by 2041. An increase of 41,000 persons. Housing supply continues to become available through activity centres, greenfield growth, new apartments, and infill as the region caters for higher density living.

Brisbane South

The Brisbane South region is forecast to grow from a population of 377,500 to 458,500 by 2041. It is the largest of the five regions in the City of Brisbane and having added 109,000 people in the last 20 years, it is second only to the Inner City in terms of forecast growth with over 1,000 development sites identified and a diverse mix of housing supply, including apartment growth, activity centre growth and greenfield development.

Brisbane West

Brisbane - West is forecast to grow from a population of 192,000 in 2021 to 213,000 by 2041. Indooroopilly is forecast to account for 34% of the region's population growth. Whilst half of the SA2s will grow primarily through infill at approximately 10 dwellings per annum.

Brisbane East

Brisbane – East is forecast to grow from a population of 243,500 to 280,250 by 2041. It includes Redland City and 9 SA2s of Brisbane City. With some greenfield development occurring Victoria Point and Redland Bay, some activity centre development in Cleveland, Wynnum and Manly.

Brisbane Inner City

Brisbane Inner City is going through a process of densification where young adults are seeing the virtues of living in apartments in the inner city.

Toowoomba

The Toowoomba region (SA4) is forecast to grow from 164,144 to 202,752 by 2046, an increase of 38,608 people throughout the forecast period. Directly adjacent to Ipswich, the Toowoomba SA4 region is the natural periphery to Queensland's fastest growing population hub, creating an array of opportunities and challenges for the region.

Wide Bay

Wide Bay SA4 is forecast to grow from 310,728 to 383,177 by 2046, an increase of 72,449 people throughout the forecast period. Immediately north of Queensland's famous Sunshine Coast, the Wide Bay region acts as it's direct extension, and set to receive a large share of growing families searching for larger properties.

Cairns

Cairns SA4 is forecast to grow from 257,149 to 322,712 by 2046, an increase of 65,563 people throughout the forecast period. As Queensland's fourth largest city, Cairns is forecast to experience significant greenfield growth contributing to its fast expanding population.

Central Queensland

Central Queensland SA4 is forecast to grow from 231,104 to 264,629 by 2046, an increase of 33,525 people throughout the forecast period. With significant greenfield potential available, the areas surrounding Rockhampton and Gladstone are forecast to take the lion's share of the region's population growth.

Townsville

Townsville SA4 is forecast to grow from 237,452 to 300,834 by 2046, an increase of 63,382 people throughout the forecast period. The region's population and dwelling growth is dominated by two SA2s, Burdell - Mount Low SA2 and Bohle Plains SA2, which are forecast to experience significant growth relative to each place.

Rest of Queensland

Combined, Darling Downs - Maranoa SA4 and Queensland - Outback SA4 are forecast to contribute 11,555 persons to Queensland's population from 2021 to 2046, contributing 0.5% and 0.1% respectively. Of the two regions, Warwick SA2 in Darling Downs - Maranoa is expected to contribute the most significant growth, accounting for 2,494 persons to 2046.

Townsville

South Australia

We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state and regional-level forecasts for South Australia.

Access the presentation slides, a short recap or watch the full webinar presentation on demand.

Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.

Adelaide - West

Adelaide - West is forecast to grow from 247,123 to 300,786 by 2046. An increase of 53,663 people throughout the forecast period. This growth is concentrated in Port Adelaide SA2, Plympton SA2 and Brompton-Hindmarsh SA2 and is dominated by apartments and urban densification.

Adelaide - North

Adelaide - North is forecast to grow from 461,302 to 607,486 by 2046. An increase of 146,184 people throughout the forecast period. As the growth engine of Greater Adelaide, Adelaide - North is forecast to account for nearly half of Greater Adelaide's population growth by 2046.

Adelaide Central and Hills

Adelaide - Central and Hills is forecast to grow from 315,867 to 382,296 by 2046, an increase of 66,429 people throughout the forecast period. Dominated by Mount Barker SA2 and Adelaide SA2 (CBD), the SA4 will rely on these areas for close to half of its population growth in the next 25 years.

Adelaide - South

Adelaide - South is forecast to grow from 378,101 to 428,462 by 2046, an increase of 50,361 people throughout the forecast period. As the historic growth front of Adelaide, policy and topographical constraints have limited its urban sprawl, encouraging urban densification.

South Australia - Outback

South Australia - Outback is forecast to grow from 85,586 to 86,789 by 2046, an increase of 1,203 people throughout the forecast period. Home to some of the most remote places in Australia, development activity in the region is mostly limited to the Eyre Peninsula.

Barossa - Yorke - Mid-North

Barossa - Yorke - Mid North is forecast to grow from 116,963 to 137,117 by 2046, an increase of 20,154 people throughout the forecast period. Home to Australia's staple wine regions, the SA4 is forecast to experience the greatest growth out of the rural South Australian SA4s

South Australia - South East

South Australia - South East is forecast to grow from 198,250 to 237,784 by 2046, an increase of 36,534 people throughout the forecast period. A popular retiree region, the SA4 is forecast to experience consistent growth throughout the 25-year forecast period.

Barossa - Yorke - Mid-North

Tasmania

We set the context for our local area forecasts with a presentation of our state and regional-level forecasts for Tasmania.

Access the presentation slides, a short recap or watch the full webinar presentation on demand.

Learn what's driving change and how much growth will go to each region of the state over the 25 years to 2046.

Northern Territory

The Northern Territory is forecast to grow from 249,200 to 302,628 by 2046, an increase of 53,428 people throughout the forecast period. Made up of only two SA4s, Darwin and Northern Territory - Outback, combined, the regions are set to contribute 0.58% of Australia's population growth over the 25-year forecast period.

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Population forecast analysis

Read the research and analysis from our National Forecasting Program..

Subscribe to updates →

Australia

Victoria

New South Wales

Queensland

Western Australia

South Australia

Tasmania

Northern Territory

Australian Capital Territory

Analysis from by the National Forecasting Program

Where can I see local (small area) forecasts?

Australia

Victoria

Victoria

Ballarat

Melbourne Inner

Northern Melbourne

Eastern Melbourne

Western Melbourne

Melbourne South-East

Bendigo

Gippsland

Geelong and West Coast

Southern Melbourne and the Mornington Peninsula

North East and Goulburn Valley

Southern Melbourne and the Mornington Peninsula

New South Wales

New South Wales & the ACT

City and Southern Sydney

Parramatta

South West Sydney

Parramatta

Sydney North West

Illawarra-South Coast

Riverina

Hunter-Central Coast

North Coast - New England

North Sydney

Western Australia

Western Australia

Wheatbelt

Outback regions

Perth - Inner

Bunbury

Perth - South East

Perth - North East

Perth - South West

Mandurah

Perth - North West

Queensland

Queensland

Logan-Beaudesert

Ipswich

Gold Coast

Sunshine Coast

Moreton Bay North

Moreton Bay South

Brisbane North

Brisbane South

Brisbane West

Brisbane East

Brisbane Inner City

Toowoomba

Wide Bay

Cairns

Central Queensland

Townsville

Rest of Queensland

Townsville

South Australia

South Australia

Adelaide - West

Adelaide - North

Adelaide Central and Hills

Adelaide - South

South Australia - Outback

Barossa - Yorke - Mid-North