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Population forecast analysis

Research, findings and assumptions from each region where we produce our forecasts.

Back to Demographic Resource Centre

Queensland
Western Australia
South Australia
Tasmania
Northern Territory
Other regions

National forecast

How will the population of Australia change over the next 25 years? What is driving this growth?

Our national forecast shares these assumptions and determines the overall level of growth that is shared between the regions of Australia listed below.

Population forecast DRC National forecasts

How will the population of Australia change over the next 25 years? What is driving this growth? How will this growth be shared between the States and Territories?

This national forecast is the starting point in our forecasting process, setting a total growth forecast that is then shared between the states, territory and each region of Australia.

Western Australia

Perth - South West

We forecast an increase of 172,566 in the population and an anticipated growth of 83,396 in dwellings for the Perth-South West region from 2026 to 2046.

Mandurah

Over the 20-year period from 2026 to 2046, a forecasted increase of 58,179 in population and a growth of 26,130 in dwellings is anticipated for the region.

Queensland

Logan-Beaudesert

This continued southward expansion of Greater Brisbane is forecast to make Logan-Beaudesert the third-fastest growing region in Queensland in the next twenty years.

Ipswich

A favourable economic outlook, protection from the population impacts of pandemic and an abundance of greenfield and high-density housing supply combines to make Ipswich the fastest-growing region in Queensland over the next 20 years, according to our latest forecast.

Gold Coast

Sustained population growth and a forecast shift from the greenfield development that has driven growth in recent years: in this update, we unpack these and other insights from our latest population forecasts for the Gold Coast region - the first in our South East Queensland series.

Sunshine Coast

This Sunshine Coast is a large and diverse region with significant population growth forecast. Home to some of Australia's largest master planned communities which are already underway, the lion's share of development over the next 20 years is forecast to happen in just one corner of the region.

Moreton Bay North

The SA4 of Moreton Bay North is within South-East Queensland, north of Brisbane. It acts as a growth area for the north of Brisbane, with greenfield development as people move further out of the city.

Moreton Bay South

The SA4 of Moreton Bay - South is located in South-East Queensland, north of Brisbane. It is a well established area with limited significant growth fronts. While the population is forecast to grow by 66,650 persons in the two decades to 2041, it is characterised by dwindling greenfield land supply. This will result in the urban densification and verticalisation of the region.

Brisbane North

Brisbane - North is forecast to grow from a population of 228,000 to 269,000 by 2041. An increase of 41,000 persons. Housing supply continues to become available through activity centres, greenfield growth, new apartments, and infill as the region caters for higher density living.

Brisbane South

The Brisbane South region is forecast to grow from a population of 377,500 to 458,500 by 2041. It is the largest of the five regions in the City of Brisbane and having added 109,000 people in the last 20 years, it is second only to the Inner City in terms of forecast growth with over 1,000 development sites identified and a diverse mix of housing supply, including apartment growth, activity centre growth and greenfield development.

Brisbane West

Brisbane - West is forecast to grow from a population of 192,000 in 2021 to 213,000 by 2041. Indooroopilly is forecast to account for 34% of the region's population growth. Whilst half of the SA2s will grow primarily through infill at approximately 10 dwellings per annum.

Brisbane East

Brisbane – East is forecast to grow from a population of 243,500 to 280,250 by 2041. It includes Redland City and 9 SA2s of Brisbane City. With some greenfield development occurring Victoria Point and Redland Bay, some activity centre development in Cleveland, Wynnum and Manly.

Brisbane Inner City

Brisbane Inner City is going through a process of densification where young adults are seeing the virtues of living in apartments in the inner city.

Toowoomba

The Toowoomba region (SA4) is forecast to grow from 164,144 to 202,752 by 2046, an increase of 38,608 people throughout the forecast period. Directly adjacent to Ipswich, the Toowoomba SA4 region is the natural periphery to Queensland's fastest growing population hub, creating an array of opportunities and challenges for the region.

Wide Bay

Wide Bay SA4 is forecast to grow from 310,728 to 383,177 by 2046, an increase of 72,449 people throughout the forecast period. Immediately north of Queensland's famous Sunshine Coast, the Wide Bay region acts as it's direct extension, and set to receive a large share of growing families searching for larger properties.

Cairns

Cairns SA4 is forecast to grow from 257,149 to 322,712 by 2046, an increase of 65,563 people throughout the forecast period. As Queensland's fourth largest city, Cairns is forecast to experience significant greenfield growth contributing to its fast expanding population.

Central Queensland

Central Queensland SA4 is forecast to grow from 231,104 to 264,629 by 2046, an increase of 33,525 people throughout the forecast period. With significant greenfield potential available, the areas surrounding Rockhampton and Gladstone are forecast to take the lion's share of the region's population growth.

Townsville

Townsville SA4 is forecast to grow from 237,452 to 300,834 by 2046, an increase of 63,382 people throughout the forecast period. The region's population and dwelling growth is dominated by two SA2s, Burdell - Mount Low SA2 and Bohle Plains SA2, which are forecast to experience significant growth relative to each place.

Rest of Queensland

Combined, Darling Downs - Maranoa SA4 and Queensland - Outback SA4 are forecast to contribute 11,555 persons to Queensland's population from 2021 to 2046, contributing 0.5% and 0.1% respectively. Of the two regions, Warwick SA2 in Darling Downs - Maranoa is expected to contribute the most significant growth, accounting for 2,494 persons to 2046.

Townsville

South Australia

Adelaide - West

Adelaide - West is forecast to grow from 247,123 to 300,786 by 2046. An increase of 53,663 people throughout the forecast period. This growth is concentrated in Port Adelaide SA2, Plympton SA2 and Brompton-Hindmarsh SA2 and is dominated by apartments and urban densification.

Adelaide - North

Adelaide - North is forecast to grow from 461,302 to 607,486 by 2046. An increase of 146,184 people throughout the forecast period. As the growth engine of Greater Adelaide, Adelaide - North is forecast to account for nearly half of Greater Adelaide's population growth by 2046.

Adelaide Central and Hills

Adelaide - Central and Hills is forecast to grow from 315,867 to 382,296 by 2046, an increase of 66,429 people throughout the forecast period. Dominated by Mount Barker SA2 and Adelaide SA2 (CBD), the SA4 will rely on these areas for close to half of its population growth in the next 25 years.

Adelaide - South

Adelaide - South is forecast to grow from 378,101 to 428,462 by 2046, an increase of 50,361 people throughout the forecast period. As the historic growth front of Adelaide, policy and topographical constraints have limited its urban sprawl, encouraging urban densification.

South Australia - Outback

South Australia - Outback is forecast to grow from 85,586 to 86,789 by 2046, an increase of 1,203 people throughout the forecast period. Home to some of the most remote places in Australia, development activity in the region is mostly limited to the Eyre Peninsula.

Barossa - Yorke - Mid-North

Barossa - Yorke - Mid North is forecast to grow from 116,963 to 137,117 by 2046, an increase of 20,154 people throughout the forecast period. Home to Australia's staple wine regions, the SA4 is forecast to experience the greatest growth out of the rural South Australian SA4s

South Australia - South East

South Australia - South East is forecast to grow from 198,250 to 237,784 by 2046, an increase of 36,534 people throughout the forecast period. A popular retiree region, the SA4 is forecast to experience consistent growth throughout the 25-year forecast period.

Barossa - Yorke - Mid-North

Tasmania

The population Tasmania in 2021 was just shy of 568,000. The population is forecast to grow by 61,300 persons to pass 629,300 by 2046.

Barossa - Yorke - Mid-North

Northern Territory

The Northern Territory is forecast to grow from 249,200 to 302,628 by 2046, an increase of 53,428 people throughout the forecast period. Made up of only two SA4s, Darwin and Northern Territory - Outback, combined, the regions are set to contribute 0.58% of Australia's population growth over the 25-year forecast period.

Barossa - Yorke - Mid-North

Other regions

Our population forecasts are available for every region of Australia. Read more about our Small Area Forecast information (SAFi) and contact us for a copy of forecasts for any region of Australia here.

We commenced publication of our analysis and assumptions in with the release of our forecasts for the Gold Coast Region in January 2021.

We regularly review and update our forecasts, and analysis for regions in other states and territories will be published soon.

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Local government

Industry services

Local government

Industry services

Population forecast analysis

Research, findings and assumptions from each region where we produce our forecasts.

Queensland

Western Australia

South Australia

Tasmania

Northern Territory

Other regions

National forecast

Western Australia

Perth - South West

Mandurah

Queensland

Logan-Beaudesert

Ipswich

Gold Coast

Sunshine Coast

Moreton Bay North

Moreton Bay South

Brisbane North

Brisbane South

Brisbane West

Brisbane East

Brisbane Inner City

Toowoomba

Wide Bay

Cairns

Central Queensland

Townsville

Rest of Queensland

Townsville

South Australia

Adelaide - West

Adelaide - North

Adelaide Central and Hills

Adelaide - South

South Australia - Outback

Barossa - Yorke - Mid-North

South Australia - South East

Barossa - Yorke - Mid-North

Tasmania

Tasmania

Barossa - Yorke - Mid-North

Northern Territory

Northern Territory

Barossa - Yorke - Mid-North

Other regions

Want to stay informed?

Follow the .id blog for demographic insights,tips and news from the experts

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STAY INFORMED

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